All week I called for a correction and test of the fast moving averages. Although not all indexes hit the mark perfectly, Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&P 500 (SPY) did. Now, will the bull market resume? Good question for Siri.
S&P 500 (SPY) Second accumulation day of volume in a row with a good strong finish. Watch Thursday high as point to cross. Subs: Pivots negative
Russell 2000 (IWM) Filled the gap from yesterday's low after the weak opening. Now, has to get back above Thursday's lows. Subs: R1 and today's high lines up
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Could not make it down to the fast moving average which could mean has more to go or that this is strong enough that sideways action is the correction Subs: Pivots Negative
ETFs:
GLD Nearly touched the fast moving average and still looking fine
XLF (Financials) A gap higher would be compelling. Otherwise, has to hold around 15.90
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day Subs: Interesting look at the weekly Bollinger Band which could be important as the week comes to an end
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed phase change to distribution. Looking to see if can turn around and clear today's high and the 50DMA
XRT (Retail) Second test of the 10 DMA. Like to see Thursday's high clear Subs: Long for swing-stop under 63.85
IYT (Transportation) Subs: Touched and closed inside the channel bottom. Watching carefully
IYR (Real Estate) Actually oversold and tested near the 50 DMA.
USO (US Oil Fund) After big decline, inside day
OIH (Oil Services) Closed right at Thursday's low, which is encouraging if opens better or at least unchanged
XLE (Energy) Like this today and tweeted as such. Subs: 75.41 is R1 to clear
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT-today's low is important or could see TBT run again
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
EXP Has to clear R1 now
RRC Closed above pivots but stack is negative. Ideally want to see this hold 68.80 and cross R1.
FLS closed above the pivots but stack is negative. Has to hold the FTP, clear R1. 135.57 2012 high
MMM Inside day. Pivots stacked negative but closed above. 92.59 max risk. 2012 high 94.30
VFC Tested and held the 10 DMA. 159.80 close support and R1 and today's high line up. 1`64.35 the 2012 high
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
DVA held the 50 DMA. Has to cross the 10 DMA which lines up with today's high and R1
SLB 74.20 area should hold. Above today's high clears the 10 DMA-and R1
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
WPI 84.02 cleared and could see a push higher
LNKD With the highs so close, must now hold the 10 DMA
HFC Could not close on new highs but had a great move. 41.20 now support.
GRA Inside day. 61.19 the 2012 high. Real close
EXXI Improved to condition 1. Has to hold 36.24. 2012 high 39.65
MTH Broke out end of day. Today's low important.
IACI Reversal only as approaching but not yet at overbought. 52.70 is the channel breakout
SWI Pivots negative but closed above. Now has to cross R1
CTXS Like the inside day and that R1 lines up with the today's high. Risk 80.80 the 10 DMA
BIIB Had a U-turn. The weekly RSI is high, but this is good for a day to mini
Phase Change: APD R1 and today's high line up CREE Today's high and R1 line up AMGN Held S1. Swing still in play new entries have the 10 DMA to clear PX Inside day, phase change. 108 should hold and over 108.63 could see 110 and better CHRW Over 57.82 should finally get going TSLA if holds 31.00 could see another pop
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
TKR Has to break S1. Support 38.50
BIDU Under 111.30, my earlier target has to break and risk is 112.54
PAY An OR high failure would be good against R1 or a breakdown with a tighter risk to 31.95
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
BBY Cannot clear 18.44 and should break today's low
Bye for Now!
