SPY 110.27 low from early August. Double the recent volume for big distribution day. Back under the 200 weekly moving average and broke under a parallel channel. Oversold on daily, not weekly so at this point see no bottoming indicators (then again never saw any even when it rallied). Now, under the recent low, unless some manipulation happens or Germany bails out Europe, can see 87.00 the last swing low in 2009 before the run up.
DIA Back in August, this never closed under the 200 weekly and such is still the case. See 96.00 as ultimate support and unless it clears 111 on the upside, would continue to sell rallies.
QQQ Since it gapped well under 55.00, the trade was the opening range reversal off of the highs for a short. 52.00 next level and still a long way off from the August low 49.93 and the 200 weekly at 45.00. But, since AAPL and AMZN are still holding up, would not be surprised to see a bounce to test the 55.00 level, where the moving averages are.
IWM Move on breakdown measure to 50.00, so unless it breaks today's high, still very vulnerable. Above today's high could see a bounce back up to 69.00 without violation of the trend.
ETFs:
GLD**Caught a bounce which I actively tweeted today but decided to exit because of the gap down, the failure to close above the 50 DMA and the huge distribution in volume. Now in an unconfirmed weak warning phase so above the 50 DMA and todays high, will look to re enter the long. But only in that scenario.
SLV "The much better short should metals start to fail.." Written Tuesday..but the huge gap down made the risk big unless you caught the OR high failure which I totally missed.
SMH If there is any sector/group that could potentially bounce; this is the top of my list. Subs-Trifecta setup-R1 and previous day high with OR breakout (5 and/or 30 minute) all lined up.
REE Haven't thought about this in a really long time, but noticed it is one of the few that is holding the 200 weekly moving average and returned to the breakout level from 2010 at 6.45 although closed underneath.Subs- over 6.38 takes out today's high and R1 and could see a bounce perhaps up to 9.00.Pricing Calls at the money tomorrow
Longs: In today's video I review looking for Condition 1 stocks with 2 days under the FTP or Condition 2-4 ones that take out R1 that corresponds with today's high and an oversold RSI. Main focus will be the indexes and the ETFs mentioned above.
AAPL Not even close to oversold, but does have 2 days under the FTP at 402.85 and is a Condition 1. Not loving the bearish engulfing pattern from Wednesday, but since AAPL is the new GLD, if it crosses R1 and today's high, good sign and if it holds the 10 DMA at 396.40, could be a low risk buy if lines up with an OR low or support point. Day to mini
CMG Same as far as condition and not oversold with 2 days under the FTP at 327.15. R1 lines up with today's high 334.74. The 10 DMA is 320.30. Depending on how it opens, will watch for a low risk entry against the pivots or DMA. Day to mini
CBST Crossing of the 10 and the 50 DMA with 2 days under the FTP at 34.87 and a good hold of S1 closing basically unchanged. Almost overbought on weekly so not perfect RSI setup, nonetheless, R1 lines up with today' s high at 35.75. Today's low the risk. Day to mini
SPG held the 200 DMA at 109.83, S1 and lines up well with R1 and today's high at 112.80 which also clears the 160 EMA. Risk is S1 109.16 and could see 115 if market bounces. Day to mini
CF Similar to SPG and way more oversold as it held the 200 DMA at 145.00, and has R1 at 151.95. Could see a pop to 162.50 level. Day to mini
Hon Mention RRC (Inside day, must hold 62.72) CELG (OB on weekly RSI not daily, Condition 1 with 2 days under FTP at 62.76) Buy on strength over R1 and today's high: NFLX* (Inside day through 132.90) ORLY (Through 69.60) AMZN (Through 228.35) ATHN (if clears 64.34) RL(Through 146.59) NKE (earnings-if anything would consider an OR high failure short, but keeping open mind)
Shorts: Do not see any short setups that have good risk/rewards for anything more than daytrades since all are oversold. This does not mean they cannot get more oversold, but no recommendations until we work off some oversold conditions. Continue to watch the ultrashorts especially for OR reversals.
Goodnight!