Incredible rally off of the August lows, led by the groups that have been trailing for some time now, which could be first indication that the FED's non-inflationary actions are sustainable. We came in with a game plan to buy oversold stocks in sectors/groups that held longer term moving averages and crossed key reference points.
SPY One of the classic patterns I look for to support a rally that could be more than just a bounce in a bear phase is volume. That disappointed today. This does not mean that the close back over the 200 weekly cannot give us more upside, but like the last rally, the end was inevitable without volume patterns to support it. Nearly filled the gap left from 9/21's low -missed by 4 cents. 114.50 level now support to hold with overhead at 118.00.
DIA Was first index to hold Friday's high and run to new intraday highs plus could not fill the gap from 9/21 low at 110.88. Support 108. Resistance to bust through 111.00.
QQQ with early weakness in AAPL and AMZN took it's time but rallied later on to the resistance at the channel breakdown area and the 50 DMA. It eked out an Accumulation day in volume. Has its gap to fill at 55.38. If it closes back inside the channel, would not dismiss the possibility of the leaders back in control.
IWM Just about filled the gap missing by only a few cents. Also, closed back above the 200 weekly moving average. Subs-provided it holds 64.95, could see 68.50 next.
ETFs:
GLD** Held the 160 EMA with oversold registering on the RSI both weekly and daily. Could rally back to 165, but the daily chart has strong indications that a double top was put in place on the second attempt at new highs.
SMH Back through 30.00 could get interesting. Otherwise, still in a bear phase with an anemic attempt at the 50 DMA. XLF Must cross 11.80
IYR Did what it needed to do and now must cross 52.40 to stay firm.
IYT 77.90 is the 200 weekly moving average to cross.
XLF Good start on low volume. The real trend reversal is over 13.50. If it holds above 12.00 though, worth watching.
TLT Got long TBT and sold half with profit. Now, 19.73 S1 should hold if good.
OIH Has more work to do since it still has a gap to 118, the August low to fill if we are looking at anything like a bottom. Otherwise, working off oversold conditions only.
Longs: Bought F calls as planned. Otherwise, hard to get too attached to longs until I see volume coming in so keeping positions small and taking profits along the way. CF a good breakout and possible hold for swing traders provided it holds the 200 DMA. CL as well. Good OR reversal from list CBST SPG DISH.
ORLY Not a great setup for today since stopped at the 10 DMA at 69.90 and although opened above R1, never had a 30 minute bar close above it. R1 now 70.00 which lines up with today's high and the 10 DMA. Over 70.00 swing risk to 67.95 miniswing 68.70. All time high made last week at 72.00. Could see 78.00 area Day to swing
RL Neutral pivots at 145.49 and above the 10 DMA at 146.30. Would watch for OR reversal if holds the pivots. Above today's high has overhead, but a condition 1 so could have potential above the recent highs 154.62 Day to swing
GMCR held the 50 DMA at 100.66 and is aCondition 4. Must clear 107.44, R1, then the 10 DMA at 108.25 but still not so far from all time high considering last week therefore worth watching for a good risk setup Day to swing
NKE Inside day with positive pivots at 88.84 so also candidate for OR reversal with risk to 87.67 S1. On strength, above 90.00 could see 95.00 with possibility of move to 110 if market behaves. Day to swing
TZOO Buy on weakness pick because have a clear risk to 22.80 as it holds the 200 weekly below at 21.42. Like all buys on weakness, must clear R1 at 25.04 before entering. Has gap to 27.71 with overhead resistance at 30.50 Day to mini
Honorable Mention: AAPL (Must clear R1 407.40) CELG (Must clear R1 63.91) PANL (Must clear R1 53.03) TSLA (must clear 27.00) OR Reversal CF CL DECK VFC CMG DISH CERN CBST
Shorts: With so many having positive pivots, would rather wait for new setups before new short recommendations.
EPD provided it does not cross R1 at 41.13 and breaks the positive pivots at 40.83. Support down below at 36.00 Day to swing
CRM Negative pivots at 119.06. R1 at 123.61 which must not clear for short. Can see 109.25 level.Day to swing
Goodnight!