And right on cue, a rally to resistance as none of the indexes were able to test or clear the fast moving averages. But certainly, in the face of some anemic economic numbers, they did indeed bounce off the lows-and, worked off oversold conditions. In the spirit of a trading range established, could see a higher open. What happens at the fast moving averages remains to be seen. Best guess, they stay resistance areas as this week, month ends. Phase bullish.
S&P 500 (SPY) Today's rally did not come with an accumulation in volume. 145.75 overhead resistance and 144 support. Subs: Pivots positive in all indexes and market internals went back to short term positive.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 85.00 fast moving average resistance 83.50 support to hold.
Dow (DIA) 134.25 now support. 135.25 resistance
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 68.90 support and 69.75 next resistance
ETFs:
GLD 173.18 recent high which if clears will bring it back to 2012 high 174
XLF (Financials) 15.71 level pivotal
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day. With 1 day left to the month, should hold well above the close of last month and keep that trend intact.
SMH (Semiconductors) Got the relief rally. 32.10 next point to clear to keep this going Subs: Slingshot confirmed and back over 65-weekly moving average.
IYT (Transportation) Subs: Watching channel clearance or start to think lower prices ahead
IYR (Real Estate) Subs: Did not close above the channel I showed you in today's video. Will watch to see how it end the week
USO (US Oil Fund) Possible little island bottom
OIH (Oil Services) Back above the 50 DMA. Subs: Unconfirmed phase change back to bullish
XLE (Energy) Subs: 74.00 next hurdle. 73.40 good risk
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Back to unconfirmed recovery phase
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: Still like a lot of this week's picks. Adding some new ones to look at.
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
EL Improved in condition but has a slingshot unless it clears 62.24. Risk 61.35
FIO Improved in condition. 31.46 recent high to clear. Risk 29.94.
JAZZ Has to take out 58.94 the last high and slingshot day. 55.87 max risk
DVA 102 now should hold
COG 44.60 level now key support to hold
CRM 152.00 max risk and has to clear the 10 DMA
TROW 63.10 support now to hold and 64.15 the 10 DMA to clear
AEM A monthly close over 51.53 clears the 80 month moving average. 51.30 to hold
CF Improved to condition 1. Like to see 219.20 hold. Over 222 looks better
FSLR If 22.30 holds, this could clear the 200 DMA and have a good rally
VFC 159.90 tight risk as this closed in an improved condition
COF Unconfirmed bullish phase provide it holds 56.60.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Phase Change: SLB Unconfirmed bullish. Needs a second close above 73.20 to confirm VMW Unconfirmed accumulation phase with a range expansion. Has to hold 96.00 BVN Has to hold today's low DOV Has to hold today's low NBL Has to hold 90.88
Shorts:
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
NFLX 56.38 max risk. Will short under today's low
BA Cannot clear today's high and should break today's low
Bye for Now!
