As anticipated GLD and many commodity related instruments got hit today. All of the conflicting signs: the weaker stocks that rallied, phase still bearish, lack of participation by market leaders, poor overall volume, low consumer confidence and short term hike on rates came home to roost.
SPY Looking at the 200 weekly moving average at 114.58. The low after the FED meeting and yesterday high makes today roughly a 50% retracement. Expect some chop and another day of low volume. A move over R1 117.41 could renew some buying.
DIA 108.00 next support with move over 112 some relief.
QQQ Could not confirm the phase change to Recovery. Broke the 50 DMA and the channel it struggled to get beyond. Now 52.00 underlying support and 55.50 the point to clear.
IWM 65.20 the 200 weekly moving average support which matters most with closing price. Over today's high could be interesting though.
ETFs:
GLD I hope I handed you this short trade on a gold platter! 155.16 the 160 EMA which held again. Under see the eventual test of the 200 DMA at 148.60 area. Has to clear 165 to show any signs of a base.
SMH Broke 30.00, so unless it gets back above, next support at the 200 weekly moving average 27.26.
IYR 50.55 the 200 weekly moving average.
IYT Went for the under the 200 weekly moving average trouble . One of the few that broke the August lows already last week (OIH as well)-surest to watch for next direction.
TLT**Yes we are still working a double top with 2008 highs and the one last week, but strength today suggests may not be over just yet. Subs: 117.53 R1 that must clear to reverse .
Longs: Not trading Thursday but still holding ¼ UUP and the F options since a long term trade. Otherwise flat for now.
ORLY Inside day and positive pivots at 69.25 with the 10 DMA at 69.82. But, recent support at 67.95 has held thus far so one to watch as a decent chance to work higher Day to mini
DECK Has to hold 98.05 S1 but if market firms at all, resting on the 10 DMA which means that watch for rally over R1 101.57 to get long for anything more than a daytrade. Day to mini
HLF Maybe the best of picks because held S1 now at 56.73 which also is a break of the 10 DMA which must also hold. Then, can look for an entry with an OR breakout especially if market firms. Some overhead resistance at 60.00 with possibility of 63.35 recent highs. Day to swing
Honorable Mention: CBST ACN SPG (another test and hold of the 200 DMA) IBM (as long as 176.20 holds) VFC (must clear R 130.10)
Shorts: All the short recommendations from last night broke S1 and had great short opportunities today. Also tweeted NFLX at the OR high failure. Now watch the ultrashorts for OR reversals on the long side.
GMCR and others that are trading below the 10 DMA now have negative pivots AAPL as well so if can't clear R1 and have OR high failures against those pivots, could short but would think more daytrade.
Honorable Mention: OR high failures: ACOM GOOG OPEN BIDU WLT
Goodnight!