All I can say is don't fall asleep. Once this market wakes up, it will make a big move up or down from its current range. Considering the bull phase and the consolidation near the highs, right now-that points to sunny skies ahead. But, flexibility and having a plan is key.
S&P 500 (SPY) Remains under the fast moving average. 140 area key support and 141.50 good area to clear to resume move up. Subs: Pivots Positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) 82.70 is August high. 81.20 area now support. Subs: Pivots Positive
Dow (DIA) DOJI. Over 130.80 looks good, under 129.20 not so much. Subs: Pivots Positive 130.89 clears the 10 DMA, R1 and worth watching.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) DOJI resting under the fast moving average. 68.50 point to clear and 67.45 point to hold. Subs: Positive pivots
ETFs:
GLD Narrow range day near highs of recent move so most likely more upside
XLF (Financials) 15.20 number to clear and 15.08 to hold.
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day-over 138.75 still looks good
SMH (Semiconductors) Held the 50 DMA nearly to the tick. Over 32.62 should bring back buyers. Under the 50 DMA some key weekly moving averages next support.
XRT (Retail) Over 62.00 will break a trendline and should be good for this sector. 60.86 now key support
IYT (Transportation) Huge divergence-as the market went up first ½ of 2012 so did this. Now, it is under the 200 DMA significantly and breaking bad with the rest of the market. This concerns me.
IYR (Real Estate) 66.21 last swing high to clear. 65.25 to hold.
USO (US Oil Fund) I like the green close. Subs: Over 35.73 will look to reenter for a long
OIH (Oil Services) Like this over 40.50 for a resumption of recent move up
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 15.25 now resistance or point to clear for some follow through
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MPC 50.00 max risk. Over 50.45 clears FTP then R1 is 51.07.51.94 is 2012 high
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
WFM 95.84 risk. Like to see 97.80 clear ultimately. This did go from a condition 1 to a 2-deteriorating in condition. That means a move down to the 50 DMA not out of the question
IACI Inside day. Over todays' high puts it back to a condition 1. Max risk 50.10 for swing and 51.10 for mini.
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AAPL Slightly positive pivots. Risk 669.30 the 10 DMA. Overbought on weekly RSI, but not on daily. Some concern about a slingshot.
SLG Inside day. Like to see it clear 82.00. 80.83 the 10 DMA and S1 to hold. 90.00 a reasonable target
STX A gap above recent highs 33.04 would look real good. Otherwise, would stand aside unless clears the 10 DMA
LEN Inside day. 32.38 the 10 DMA and good risk. 33.14 yesterday high to clear
MOS Improved to condition 1. 57.55 risk to 10 DMA. Like to see 59.00 clear to power up to new 2012 highs.
MTB Today's low and the 10 DMA line up. Filled gap to 88.26 which is now pivotal. Could see move to 90 and above.
ADS Inside day. Has to hold today's low. 139.72 is 2012 high made last week.
EW Inside day. Close risk to today's low. 106.94 is 2012 high.
ONXX Inside day. Tight risk to today's low. 79.20 is 2012 high.
Phase Change: GM 21.04 good risk. Look at reversal or move above 22.10. SINA Inside day and confirmed accumulation phase provided 58.40 holds. Positive Pivots CTXS 2nd Inside day. Must clear today's high and R1. Over 79.00 can see gap fill to 80.55 first resistance IOC Range Expansion back over the 50 DMA touching the 10 DMA. Over 80 clears the 10 DMA and should hold 79.00 PPG Has to now clear 109.38 R1 and hold 107.75
Shorts: New subs-I rarely include anything with an RSI under 15.00-especially in a bullish market
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
XEC Unconfirmed bear phase if closes under 56.71 will confirm. Should not clear 57.00 tight risk
GES Inside day. Since gap lower been compressing. Should not clear 26.11
WTW Inside day. Oversold on monthly, not daily or weekly. Cannot clear 47.29 Target 43.50
PCLN About to break the 10 DMA in a still weak daily chart. Good risk 599.66
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
HUM Inside day which means cannot break today's high and should break today's low-yesterday low even better
ADSK Inside day. Cannot clear 31.63. Should break today's low.
Bye for now!
