The resiliency of the market in the face of a lot of negativity is one not to be dismissed. Got a couple of head's up on piling up long this week with first the Dow (DIA), then the NASDAQ (QQQ)-both technical formations featured here. But, when relative strength goes overbought, smart money takes profits and trails up stops to protect profits. Does that mean the phase has changed?
NASDAQ (QQQ) After Wednesday's new high and close on intraday lows, today left no gaps nor much in the way of alleviating overbought conditions. So that means one of three things: 1. the leaders will continue (AAPL, I mean you), 2. Another day of nastiness in store with the fast moving average threatened 3. Not much of a trading day at all with more of a time heals all wounds situation. Subs: Through R1 may not buy, but would not be so quick to stay short either.
S&P 500 (SPY) It broke 140 and the fast moving average, ending with a DOJI. 138.09 the low of the gap from 3/13. Looking at that level to hold Subs: R1 and today's high line up
The Dow (DIA) Tweeted that DIA was oversold now and holding that 3/13 low to the tick. I'll be looking at this as the one who told us to be caution and perhaps the first one to tell us to get back in the pool. Subs: 5 days under the pivots. Over today' high to watch for indication correction over.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Got a third correction day and broke the fast moving average. But back over today's high should be a good end to the week. Subs: R1 and today's high line up
ETFs:
GLD Tested 158 and rallied from there. If cannot close above 160, will most likely mean breaking 158 is inevitable
XLF (Financials) Better correction. If 15.50 holds good sign. Otherwise, will expect more with a move down to 14.80 a really good reason to get long
IBB (Biotechnology) Digesting while going sideways-strongest sector
SMH (Semiconductors) Still like this sector.
IYT (Transportation) FedEx weakened this group today
IYR* (Real Estate) After a second Inside day, following the way the range broke got you short or at least out of your longs.
XLE (Energy) Been writing about the weakness in this all weak. Warning phase now which means perhaps too late to sell, but no reason to get long either.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Waited for 20.35 but instead bought at 20.45.
Longs: Friday meaning expect some evening up early, but a slow day overall. Kept our deep in the money longs, but with a lot of buying potential at hand.
WYNN Bought the opening range reversal and got stopped out since not willing to fight the tape. But, it held the 10 DMA and closed above the 200 DMA which means today's low is a great risk point and might not wait for anything more than a move above the pivots with an opening range breakout. Day to Swing
GRMN Positive pivots and above the 10 DMA after several days of consolidating. Also had a big range expansion. As long as 47.00 level holds, could see return to recent highs and beyond. Day to Swing
SWK We caught the move up and got out what seems like ages ago with good money. Now it is oversold on the daily RSI and still has an upward sloping10 DMA overhead. Hammer candle got my attention as well. R lines up with today's high and the buy point. To control risk use the pivots at 77.70. Day to Swing
GS DOJI day with today's high and R1 lined up and risk to 10 DMA 122.62 for swing and today's low for mini. Day to Swing
HOT DOJI, pause and also R1 and today's high line up. Risk 10 DMA 56.38. Day to Swing
AKAM Provided today's low holds, like the upward sloping 10 DMA and a move above today's high lines up with that and R1. Then, could see 40.00 next. Day to Swing
TDC New name on the list since outperformed the market with neutral pivots. Last week made new all-time highs at 69.20. Like to see today's low hold and could go to 71.00 or better. Day to Swing
Honorable mention: Must Clear ROK* (81.23) SFLY* (32.37) PAY (50.80) VFC (150) CTXS (78.98) CIE (31.14) CTSH (76.66) Positive Pivots Opening Range Reversal: CELG BIIB KORS CHKP* BIDU IBM WTW
Shorts: Badly beaten up stocks not already short are now too risky
DECK Still has another leg down possible under 65.00 to 55 next support and must not clear today's high. Day to Swing
GES After awful earnings, gapped lower. Provided it does not clear today's high, could be setting up for another move down to 25.00. Day to Swing
WLT If energy still has more downside, this one is not quite oversold. Cannot clear today's high and could see support at the 80 monthly moving average56.20. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: HES (Opening Range High Failure)
Goodnight!