Not too crazy about a weakening US dollar for the ultimate best case scenario (the one where the improving US economic recovery takes the credit for the rally). Nonetheless, since we have been long across many groups and sectors since 2012 began, ours is not to question why.
NASDAQ (QQQ) A gap higher and away we go. For those of you who never saw one before, please note a sideways time correction coupled with an end of week inside day, even after an ominous looking one day candle last week.
S&P 500 (SPY) 142-144 target, of course provided 140 holds
The Dow (DIA) 132.61 high March 16th. Could mean has more catching up to do. Could also mean like last week, a sign of Turnaround Tuesday. An unconfirmed island bottom after gap so today's low key.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Closed right at March 19th high after clearing it intraday. 83.30 back to the pivotal area to hold, but it looks pretty awesome.
ETFs:
GLD Island bottom, back over the 200 DMA. Do I hear the 50 DMA?
XLF (Financials) Guess that hold of 15.50 was the end of the correction. New multi-year highs
IBB (Biotechnology) New highs, no surprise
SMH (Semiconductors) Gave a gift today when it gapped open higher, tested the intraday low, then took off. 36.12, last swing high in 2008, but that should not be an issue now.
XRT (Retail) Been an amazing leader all along.
IYT (Transportation)Gapped above the 50 DMA and stopped for now at the fast moving average. Changing target to 100.00
IYR (Real Estate) Here's the rub. In a solvent US economy, this group has to be involved to sustain rallies. Subs: want to see it clear 62.00.
XLE (Energy) Bounce off of the key weekly moving average. Still a good sector to go to if market weakens. OIH (Oil Services) even better place to go if market weakens.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Did not chase, which was a good thing. However, have not taken my eyes off of this level for a long re entry. Subs: Positive Pivots and hammer candle
Longs: Please make sure you watch today's video that explains the new format. I will be tweeting preopen which category makes the most sense to watch based on the pre-market call. Any suggestions and/or comments, always appreciated. Not including anything new that has RSIs over 92 on the weekly or daily. Lots in Category 3 which means may be best to only go with ones that have an Opening Range Reversal even if they are not overbought.
Category 1: Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
None at this time
Category 2: Positive Phase, Condition 2, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
None at this time
Category 3: Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means candidate for Opening Range Reversal, Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ACE (Changed back to a Condition 1)
GOOG
WYNN
FDX (Like to see today's high and R1 clear)
SLG
MON
MET (Changed back to a Condition 1)
TRW (Changed back to a Condition 1)
A
CF (Opening Range Reversal best to control risk)
XEC and XOM
UTX ROK CSTR (From Sunday-none overbought)
Category 4: Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
SHLD (Inside day, must clear today's high)
Shorts: Eliminated anything holding the 80 monthly moving average or with RSIs under 20 on weekly or daily
Negative Phase, Underperformed the Market:
GMCR (Negative Pivots Must Not Clear R1)
GES (Negative Pivots Must Not Clear R1)
BTU (Negative Pivots Must Not Clear R1)
NAV (Positive Pivots Must Break S1 and Not Clear R1)
ATI (Positive Pivots Must Break S1 and Not Clear R1)
Goodnight!