After the 2 inside days, S&P 500 (SPY) broke the lows and closed just beneath the fast moving average, first time since January 31st. Certainly merits respect, but is only one layer of analysis. The phase remains bullish. There is support beneath current levels. Russells 2000 (IWM) gave warning last Friday and SPY followed in kind. The Bearish Engulfing pattern from last week is still in gear, which means trade cautiously from the long side. At the same time though, understand that going short is fading the trend.
S&P 500 (SPY) Subs: 2 days under the FTP and essentially a Condition 2 meaning, back over the 10 DMA is a good sign.
NASDAQ (QQQ) Closed above the 10 DMA with the hold of 64.00, now an area to watch. Subs-Negative pivots so watch R1 64.75.
Russells 2000 (IWM) 79.00 the 50 DMA which for now is holding. Subs: 4 days under the FTP now in a Condition 4. Back over 80.68, R1 could see another pop back to the 10 DMA.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) 14.85 now a good area to clear and 14.62 underlying support.
IBB (Biotechnology) 118.00 support to hold and back through 119.75 looks strong.
SMH (Semiconductors) Now the 50 DMA 33.00 to hold and back through 34.00 impressive.
IYT (Transportation) Went into an unconfirmed weak warning phase that will negate if crosses back over the 50 DMA.
IYR (Real Estate) Broke out from a wedge and now looking at the highs from 2011.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Long again as we continue to trade for a bottoming formation with 19.40 next hurdle.
Longs: Any new picks had to outperform the corresponding index, have positive pivots or traded 2 or more days under the FTPs. NR=Narrow Range day. A couple of new names in the Honorable Mention List. To diversify, have picks in several sectors and groups.
CMI Another strong stock going sideways and now with positive pivots at 120.40 which could gear up especially if can get back over the 10 DMA at 121.50. Then could see 128.50 with risk 118.73 S1. Day to Short-Term Swing
PXP 2 days under the FTP at 44.53 and a Condition 2 stock with the 10 DMA corresponding with today's high and R1. These setups are worth watching on a 5 minute opening range breakout as well. Good risk to under today's low. If clears the resistance, can go back to recent high 46.71 and higher. Day to Short-term Swing
XOM Bullish Engulfing pattern with positive pivots at 86.67 and back over the 10 DMA today. Ultimately needs to clear the recent highs 87.94 and if does, could see 95.00 or better. Day to Short-term Swing
UPS Congesting around the 10 DMA with 2 days under the FTP at 76.27. Since a Condition 2 not 1, needs to clear R1 which corresponds with today's high and the 10 DMA at 76.61. Max risk under today's low. Not a big ATR so patience is required. If can get going, looking at 2006 high 83.99 with all time high made in 2004 at 87.70. Day to Swing
AMGN (NR 13) 3 days under the FTP at 67.35 and max risk today's low 67.12. Should also clear R1 but is hanging onto the 10 DMA so can buy ½ over the FTP and balance over R1 and today's high 67.70. Weekly and monthly charts look good so if market does not collapse, could see 73.50 area next. Day to Swing
TSLA Got an initial ½ ATR in this last week and now exited today at basic break even since it has stalled with the slope on the 10 DMA pointing down. But, with 2 days under the pivots, if clears 33.90 can try again risking to under Monday's low 33.00. And, really needs to clear 34.50 to get going to what could be a great move up. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: Must Clear: JCP* (39.02) APA (107.71) APC (83.75) CTSH (71.65) PRU (62.13) Positive Pivots Opening Range Reversal: SLG SPG IBM NBL (Slingshot)
Shorts: Some huge gains in the recent short picks such as WLT PPO NSC PANL ATI X. Now with so many at or nearing oversold, the risk/reward is not in line.
DECK Another one like AMZN on and off the list. Has negative pivots at 77.58 and if can finally break 74.15, could see a selloff to 65.00. Day to Swing
BBG Under the 50 DMA with an inside day and negative pivots at 29.66. S1 and Friday's low line up so a break under could take this down 28.00 next support. Day to Mini
Honorable Mention: GDX (Cannot clear today's high) AMZN (Needs to break today's low)
Goodnight!