An Extreme Energy Crack Spread and
Two Warning Signs in Technology

Geoff Bysshe | July 19, 2026

Summary: The 3-2-1 crack spread has reached an extreme, with important implications for inflation, Fed policy, gasoline prices, and refining stocks that recently broke out to all-time highs. IBM’s historic 25% collapse demonstrates how rising memory costs and concentrated AI spending are widening the divide between technology’s winners and losers. MU’s decline after reporting record earnings and margins in late June provided an early warning of the bearish investor reaction that followed last week’s strong

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