New Trade Alert
Trade: QQQ Buy Stop 69.02 Limit 69.07
Instrument Name: NASDAQ Power Shares QQQ Trust Series 1
Position: Long
Stop: 67.39
Target: 70.50 (2102 high 70.58) Take partial profit
Trade Description: After trending sideways since 2013 began, if the market remains firm, this has the best shot to play catch up to the other indexes. Would watch for 2012 high, but if clears could see a substantial rally
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Open Trade Update
Existing Position: XLF 17.96 Long
New Stop: Can use a no loss stop to avoid a loss at 17.96 or lower is to 17.84 under the March 5th low.
First Target: 18.75 (take off 1/3 or so)
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Market Analysis for 3/25/2013
Before we get all celebratory; there are both good and not so good signs in the market as of the close of last week. The bad: Island top in S&P 500 is still there and that index failed to close above the fast moving average. The short bonds (TBTs) did not cross over the 50 DMA confirming a warning phase. The small caps (IWM) ended with an inside day, right on the fast moving average. The Financials (XLF) ended with an inside day under the fast moving average. The good: The small caps (IWM) ended with an inside day, right on the fast moving average. NASDAQ held the 50 DMA and crossed back over the fast moving average. The Dow (DIA) closed best, crossing the fast moving average and not too far from the recent highs. Retail (XRT) returned over the fast moving average as did Real Estate. That makes it tied-4 good 4 bad. And, with this week the start of the Passover holiday, ending with the market closed for Good Friday, it is possible that split decision will remain as such for a while.
S&P 500 (SPY) Through Friday's high will clear the fast moving average. Subs: Pivots positive and last week's low now super important
Russell 2000 (IWM) Follow the range break
Dow (DIA) 145.35 is the recent high and has to hold last week's low
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 67.50 (the 50 DMA) is key to hold and 69.00 the area to break above
ETFs:
GLD 154.88 is last week's low which is also a gap from its base. Therefore, if holds, good for gold, bad for market. If fails, the bear phase could resume
XLF (Financials) Inside day, follow the range break
IBB (Biotechnology) Brick wall high in place, but would not count this out as best chance for a comeback if market stabilizes
SMH (Semiconductors) Marginal, unconfirmed bullish phase with some support at 34.50
XRT (Retail) Now, the fast moving average around 70.00 should hold after this doji day
IYT (Transportation) Inside day, under the fast moving average. Market needs this group to come back
IYR (Real Estate) Another area the market needs to stay firm-watch for Friday's low to hold
USO (US Oil Fund) Good move on Friday, but still want to see it show more clear direction
OIH (Oil Services) Has a shot but now looking like a possible bear flag forming
XLE (Energy) Still looking a bit unclear
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) One of the main reasons for concern as this is below the 50 DMA-this and the island top in SPY.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Support around 60.00 with an inside day to watch
XHB (Homebuilders) Did not confirm the brick wall which is a good sign.
Bye for Now!
