New Trade Alert
This trade did not get triggered today. It is still an open order.
Trade: QQQ Buy Stop 69.02 Limit 69.07
Instrument Name: NASDAQ Power Shares QQQ Trust Series 1
Position: Long
Stop: 67.39
Target: 70.50 (2102 high 70.58) Take partial profit
Trade Description: After trending sideways since 2013 began, if the market remains firm, this has the best shot to play catch up to the other indexes. Would watch for 2012 high, but if clears could see a substantial rally
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Open Trade Update
Existing Position: XLF 17.96 Long
New Stop: Can use a no loss stop to avoid a loss at 17.96 or lower is to 17.84 under the March 5th low.
First Target: 18.75 (take off 1/3 or so)
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Market Analysis for 3/27/2013
I took a 2 day break to see family. Stepping back gives traders a chance to reflect on the market. I left Friday seeing both the good and the bad in the market and clearly, that has not changed much. The small caps (IWM) have switched to becoming the laggard, TBTs (the short bonds) remain out of favor and the financial ETF (XLF) has yet to clear the fast moving average. However, the S&P 500 finally filled the gap from the island top, making it no longer an island. And the Dow, as predicted, with its incredibly close proximity to the all-time high, crept even closer to it with today's action. What keeps traders on the plus side in their P and L is if they can detect then capitalize on the emerging shifts in direction, much like playing the carnival game, the one where must be poised to shoot the plastic duck that pops up next!
S&P 500 (SPY) 156.22 filled the gap from March 14th island top, with today's high 156.23. What that means is that the spike high from that day is less likely to be a top (would have been more likely if it been accompanied by huge volume. Subs: Today's low and the 10 DMA line up making that super important. Not overbought, ready for more upside if that level holds
Russell 2000 (IWM) Choppy in that index right now. Makes sense given its recent position in the back rather than the foreground. Subs: Range now is 93 to 95. In the middle, aside
Dow (DIA) 145.35 is the recent high with high RSIs on the weekly chart
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 67.50 (the 50 DMA) is key to hold and 69.00 the area to break above with a very interesting inside day alignment. Subs: Will jump into this for a swing over 69.00 assuming we could get 1.5 to 2 ATRs. Risk under S2.
ETFs: Subs: Some troubling signs in certain sectors: Biotechnology, Transportation and Retail as top 3 concerns
GLD Trading under the fast moving average back in a bearish looking trend. Subs: Today's high and R1 in line which means, either a great short against it, or a good day to mini swing trade long above.
XLF (Financials) Inside day right under the fast moving average. Subs: Over 18.30 could be an add if long or a place for a new long
IBB (Biotechnology) Brick wall high in place with an inside day.
SMH (Semiconductors) Today's action was positive but now, 35.50 is really the place to clear
XRT (Retail) 70.81 is potential double top which is yet another reason I am seeing some real good and some real bad signs.
IYT (Transportation) another inside day under the fast moving average and really, possibly acting a bit toppy.
IYR (Real Estate) A bright spot. 69.35 big point to clear now
USO (US Oil Fund) That bottoming action from early March sure played out with now an unconfirmed phase change to bullish
OIH (Oil Services) Either has to clear the 50 DMA or still has a shot for a possible bear flag forming
XLE (Energy) 79.50 big point to clear
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) One of the main reasons for concern as this is below the 50 DMA until it clears 67.00
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Like to see this close out the week over 61.00 for a new move up
XHB (Homebuilders) Inside day. Not sure what to make of this group here
UUP (Dollar Bull) Pushing and won't be surprised to see this through that 200 weekly moving average.
Bye for Now!
