Open Trade Update
Existing Position: XLF 17.96 Long
New Stop: Can use a no loss stop to avoid a loss at 17.96 or lower is to 17.74 under the March 5th low.
First Target: 18.75 (take off 1/3 or so)
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Existing Position: QQQ 69.02 Long
New Stop: 67.59 (Tested and held the 10 DMA today. After making new highs, then closed on the lows, a slingshot possibility now exists. That means the original stop is still good, but also giving you the option to raise your stop to 68.07 or under S2)
First Target: 2012 high was 70.58. Good place to take some profit, but if clears, looking for 3 ATRs or around 71.00-71.20
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Market Analysis for 4/2/2013
Quiet session volume wise, but some of our concerns expressed last week, namely overall weakness in certain key areas, gave the market a red day after last Thursday's exciting close. The only sector of the major ones I write about daily that closed green was Real Estate (IYR). The last few minutes of the session gave the market a bounce, which helped the indexes, particularly the S&P 500 and the Dow from closing with what we define as a slingshot high. The market internals remain positive, which is confirmation that judging a trend's health or weakness from intraday swings can chop active traders up. With that said, NASDAQ did have a marginal slingshot high, which has to be confirmed by more weakness tomorrow. And, with Financials, Transportation, Retail and the Short Bonds all struggling, the anxiety of both bulls and bears was heightened this April Fool's Day.
S&P 500 (SPY) Since it held the fast moving average and bounced off of the lows closing above the low from last Thursday, no reason to believe that this market is due for a big hit. Question, is, what will it take to keep the rally going? Subs: Pivots Negative
Russell 2000 (IWM) As a major barometer for quite some time now, the small caps closed comparatively much weaker, but held 93.00, a support area in March.
Dow (DIA) Chart looks ok, but still overbought on the weekly Relative Strength Indicator. However, the momentum even near the highs, has waned. Subs: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) It does seem logical that until AAPL can resolve its issues, NASDAQ will lag. Held 64.45 though which means, not a total disaster if this level holds up tomorrow
ETFs:
GLD 156.80 to 154.00 its established range for now
XLF (Financials) Above 18.30 will renew this sector's pizazz, under 18.00 not so much.
IBB (Biotechnology) Bless its heart-it tried to hold the market up today, but finally gave it up. But, a well-deserved rest more than the top is in
SMH (Semiconductors) Nothing would make me happier than to see this rock out. Instead, it went back into an unconfirmed warning phase. Subs: 35.00 pivotal
XRT (Retail) 70.81 is still a potential double top with 68.00 the underlying 50 DMA
IYT (Transportation) Here is another group that has to stay in the game. 108.69 the recent low to hold
IYR (Real Estate) Strong finish to new 2103 highs. Also an important sector, but can't do the job alone
USO (US Oil Fund) The 50 DMA should be support now after today's correction
OIH (Oil Services) Back to unconfirmed weak warning phase Subs: Did not close over the 80 monthly in March.
XLE (Energy) Correcting but still overall healthy looking
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Let's see what happens at 64.25-was defended big time in February
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 59.10 the 50 DMA support level Subs: And possibly a great buy opportunity
XHB (Homebuilders) Brick wall at higher levels and now the 50 DMA close by.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Could not close the week above the weekly moving average. About to get a golden cross
FXI (China) Subs: Watch to see if this returns over the 200 DMA with 36.00 a great point of support
Bye for Now!
