Market Analysis for Trading on 1/11/19

Lincoln Oehlers | January 10, 2019

Please watch today’s video-another daytrade idea was there with REGN!


Evoqua Water Technologies AQUA (ATR: .53) Reports before open on February 5th. Currently in a Recuperation or Recovery Phase, been trying to base. Would not risk more than right under 9.00 and like if closes over 9.95 for a move to 11.75 or so.

Tesla TSLA (ATR: 18.47) On the opposite side of the spectrum, this has an unconfirmed bullish phase. Reports February 6th after the close. As mentioned in the video, you can control risk by waiting for the phase to confirm and use a stop under the low of today 331.79 or if tomorrow’s low is lower use that, but it must close over 341.15.

Shorts-none right now

Existing Positions:

Reports Earning February 13th
New Age Beverage NBEV (ATR: .45)
Long at 6.17
Sell Stop: 5.24-5.44
Target: 7.99-7.44

Reports January 30th after the close
CREE (ATR: 1.93)
Long on the ORR at 44.60 or on the OR breakout at 45.20
Sell Stop choices:  42.24 or 43.04
First Target: 49.47 or 50.17 depending upon risk and fill

Reports before open February 1
**Cameco Co. CCJ (ATR: .41)
Long at 11.70
***Raise Sell Stop: 11.47
First Target: 13.50 area

Reports before open January 24th
***FSLR (ATR: 2.02)

Long at 44.60 or 45.40
Raise-Stop loss: 44.34
First Target for lower entry: 48.50 area For higher entry: 49.44

***Silver SLV (ATR: .20)
Long at 14.10 area
***Raise Trailing Stop: 14.37
First target: 15.24 for ½

If you have questions, please ask me on @marketminute my twitter account


The Market is Slow To Prove Itself

You all know the story of the Tortoise and the Hare.

Although the Hare is way faster, it’s the plodding and consistent Tortoise that wins the race.

The Galapagos Tortoise lives an uncomplicated life.

They graze, bask, nap and can survive without eating or drinking for up to a year.

We traders need to emulate the Tortoise, especially in the current market environment.

By that I mean, we need to trade with as little complications as possible.

And, just as a Tortoise has a hard shell to protect them, we need to make sure we have just enough on so that if there is a profit drought, we are protected.

Yesterday, we examined the negative fundamentals that can take hold of the market at any time.

Furthermore, from a technical standpoint, we see that all the indices and five of the six Modern Family members are in Bearish phases.

However, just as a Tortoise’s slow pace should not be underestimated, so as the adage goes, “Never short a dull market.”

That begs the question, how do we protect and position ourselves, if this is the calm before the storm?

While the momentum is up, raising stops on existing long positions is smart. Plus, carefully picking anything new from the long side is smart.

The indices have to improve phases. If they cannot, that’s a sign, especially if they close red and break support levels listed below.

If they do, don’t overthink or get too complicated. Follow the improved phases up.

Plus, watch the weekly charts.

IBB, the Russell’s IWM, Transportation IYT and Semiconductors are all still in Caution phases (above their 200-WMAs but below their 50-WMAs).

Retail XRT and Regional Banks KRE are both in Distribution Phases (under both the 50 and 20-WMAs).

Either XRT and KRE will play catch up, or, they will drag IBB, IWM, IYT, and SMH back below their 200-WMAs.

S&P 500 (SPY) 258.91 is pivotal resistance with best underlying support at 255. Subscribers: Basically, Neutral Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) 140 best underlying support and unless this can clear 145, we could see that number soon.

Dow (DIA) 235 pivotal support-244.60 is the 50-DMA

Nasdaq (QQQ) The 50 DMA at 162.50. Support at 156

KRE (Regional Banks) A weekly close over 50.25 it gets interesting or a failure of 48.00

SMH (Semiconductors) 88.40 pivotal support. 91.20 the 50 DMA.

IYT (Transportation) This still has a long way to go to see the 50 DMA at 179.35. So for now, a close under 170 would not be a good sign

IBB (Biotechnology) 110 next resistance with 106 closest support

XRT (Retail) Big failure today after poor retail earnings. 42.25 support and back over 44 better with the 200-WMA looking at 44.80

GLD (Gold Trust) 124-125 target. 120 major support

GDX (Gold Miners) best support now 20.70 and want to see a weekly close over 21.13

SLV (Silver) Now should hold 14.40.

URA (Uranium) Long CCJ so watch this to hold around 12.00

USO (US Oil Fund) 11.33 the 50 DMA-now 11 nearest support

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration)

TAN (Solar Energy) 20.50 pivotal

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 121.40 now resistance

UUP (Dollar Bull) UUP climbed right back to 25.34-that will be a key area Friday.

FXI (China) 40.60 the 200-WMA

EEM (Emerging Markets) Over 41 should continue

ILF (Latin America) 33.45 is the 80-month moving average-now support

MJ (Alternative Harvest ETF) The 50-DMA is at 28.90

LIT (Lithium) The 200-WMA at 27.72

CORN (CORN) 16.30 did not hold

CANE (Sugar) 7.37 support to hold. But futures over 13-13.07 is safest

Soybeans (SOYB) 16.25 has to hold

DBA (Agriculture) If in at 17.02 stop under 17.00-if not, waiting for a move over 17.50

USCI (US Commodity Index) Moved back over 38 and now must hold 37.70.