Market Analysis for Trading on 10/2/2013

Mish Schneider | October 1, 2013

Existing Position: Long EWG 28.02

Current Price: 28.15

Sell Stop: 27.39

First target 28.99


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Existing Position: X Long 20.68

Current Price: 21.01

Stop Loss: 19.67

First Target: LOWERED A BIT: 21.83 Take 1/3 to 1/2

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Existing Position: Long: IYR 62.15 ¼-1/3 position left

Current Price: 64.84

Stop Loss: 63.49

Next target: 66.59 sell another piece to leave ¼ of orig pos on

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Existing Position: Long TXN $39.18 ½-2/3 left

Current Price: 40.40

Stop: 39.18

First Target: REACHED!

Next Target: 42.91 for another ½ of the balance

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Accumulation in volume, new 2013 highs in NASDAQ and the Russell 2000sBiotechnology, Oiland Gas Exploration ETFs, positive phase change in the Real Estate ETF and a return to an unconfirmed bullish phase in the S&P 500. Who needs government you might be asking yourself? The poor couple planning to get married in a public park that is now closed does-the 800,000 folks furloughed until further notice for sure-but Wall Street? I wrote we were ready to dance to whatever tune the market played-never expected Beethoven’s 9th Symphony-second movement.

S&P 500 (SPY) About a 50% retracement from the high tick on September 19th and the low tick September 30th.  Has upside resistance so remains to e seen what this is really made ofSubscribers: Positive pivots in all indices

Russell 2000 (IWM) Who closed their eyes and followed this over Monday’s high as written in last night’s daily? 107.61 old 2013 high pivotal with support to hold 106.90

Dow (DIA) Wrote-“First has to clear 151.76 then the 50 DMA so definitely has its work cut out for it.” Today’s high 151.77

Nasdaq (QQQ) Another one to dive into-we did it with AAPL-thanks Icahn and Cook!

ETFs:  

XLF (Financials) Still under the 50 DMA which remains troubling as a possible double top from July and September still in play

SMH (Semiconductors) Good move but relatively muted compared to my other favorite dance partners

XRT (Retail) 83.24 is the 2013 high to clear

IYT (Transportation) This will look even better over 119.45

IBB (Biotechnology) Dancing with the stars!

IYR (Real Estate) Unconfirmed recovery phase-needs another day over the 50 DMA

GLD Made a huge drop overnight leaving the risk big-waiting to see if it can nearer to 127-where I believe the risk for a short is more manageable 

USO (US Oil Fund) Landed right on the 200 weekly moving average-and now an inside day

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Love this group and expect the 2008 highs to be tested at some point

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Without the government, do we get a reprieve from tapering talk?

EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Long for Advantage and MMMPremium now. Like to see 27.90 hold.

FXI (China) Subscribers: Will look for an opening range reversal on this to control risk now that it is back in an unconfirmed accumulation phase

Bye for Now!

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