Market Analysis for Trading on 10/31/2013

Mish Schneider | October 30, 2013

Buy Stop : FITB 19.31 Cancelled but still tracking this trade-be on alert for a buy tomorrow

**NOTE: All stops adjusted except in SLV position

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Existing Position: Long SLV 21.82

Current Price: 21.87

Stop Loss: 20.93

First Target: Take ½ 23.44

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Existing Position: Long XRT 82.78

Current Price: 84.04

**Stop Loss: 82.78 RAISED on swing trading rules after 2 ATRs a no loss stop makes sense now

First Target: 85.77 for 1/2

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Existing Position: Long EEM 42.85

Current Price: 43.06

**Stop loss: 42.09 Raised-with a possible key reversal in the market, using the stop under the gap low from October 10th

First Target: 44.25 for 1/2

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Existing Position: Long: FXI 37.31

Current Price: 37.54

**Stop Loss: 36.77 Raised-now have a stop under the 200 DMA

First Target: 38.97 take off 1/3 to 1/2

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Existing Position: Long EWG 28.02 Sold 1/3 to ½ 29.33

Current Price: 29.68

**Profitable Trailing Stop: 29.04 Raised

Next Target: 32.97

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So there was the disconnect! We came in light; the market was on new highs and rich; the Fedsaid nothing new; the market took a tumble, but not too badly and here we are. Fact-The Small caps or Russell 2000 fell the hardest on more than average the daily volume (Distribution Day), with a bearish engulfing pattern. Fact-IWM also held the runaway gap. Therefore simply put; ifIWM can hold here and firm up Thursday-not so bad. If IWM gaps lower and leaves a potential island top-not so good.

S&P 500 (SPY)  Held the 10 DMA but a distribution day and not clear on whether it was a key reversal day or not Subscribers: Pivots negative in all indices

Russell 2000 (IWM) Said it all above-except one thing-wrote about 3 shooting stars in Tuesday night’s daily-good candlestick lesson

Dow (DIA) Close to the top of channel and could go either way-again, clearest signal should come from IWM

Nasdaq (QQQ) Taking a leadership role which makes this scenario even more interesting and certainly not ghoulish.

XLF (Financials) If clears 20.90 that will give this new life

SMH (Semiconductors) Held the 10 DMA. Not ruling this out to clear the recent highs and keep going

XRT (Retail) Still looks ok-again could be digesting or reversing-need another day

IBB (Biotechnology) Been looking here every time the market gets weaker-why? The thrill of the bull move is gone

IYR (Real Estate) Interesting Doji and a good place to look for a move over the 200 DMA

GLD Sitting on the 50 DMA Subscribers: SLV not as pretty as a gap up that didn’t fill would look, but I am still positive

USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed phase change to Distribution  Subscribers: R1 is what we are watching for now

XLE (Energy) still a place to look

UUP (Dollar Bull) Confirmed a bottoming formation if holds 21.40

FXI (China) Subscribers: Back over the 50 and 200 DMAs-watching

Bye for Now!

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