Market Analysis for Trading on 10/3/2013

Mish Schneider | October 2, 2013

New Position: Long: FXI 37.31

Current Price: 37.60

Stop Loss: 35.99

First Target: 38.99 take off 1/3 to 1/2

Name of Instrument: iShares China Large-Cap ETF

Reason for trade: Changed phases a few weeks ago and now testing the 200 DMA Over the 23 monthly moving average

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Existing Position: Long EWG 28.02

Current Price: 28.10

Sell Stop: 27.39

First target 28.99


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Existing Position: X Long 20.68

Current Price: 21.65

Stop Loss: 19.67

First Target: LOWERED A BIT: 21.83 Take 1/3 to 1/2

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Existing Position: Long: IYR 62.15 ¼-1/3 position left

Current Price: 64.79

Stop Loss: 63.49

Next target: 66.59 sell another piece to leave ¼ of orig pos on

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Existing Position: Long TXN $39.18 ½-2/3 left

Current Price: 40.26

Stop: 39.18

First Target: REACHED!

Next Target: 42.91 for another ½ of the balance

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Looking at the market with a glass half full, the small caps or Russell 2000 had an inside day after making new 2013 highs Tuesday, NASDAQ made new highs closing marginally beneath them, the S&P 500 confirmed back to a bullish phase. Looking at the market with a glass half empty, theDow closed down remaining in a warning phase. Concerning the sectors and groups, Real Estateresumed its recovery phase, Financials continue to lag, oil made a comeback along with theExploration and Services groups (OIH, XOP), Retail closed green, while Transportation had an inside day. So, if I squint, it seems to me that the market is more banked on a government resolution than not-most likely before the week lets out.

S&P 500 (SPY) Over Tuesdays high will be a good sign and a break of the 50 DMA now, not so much Subscribers: Negative pivots in all indices except QQQ

Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day near the highs

Dow (DIA) hard to get too excited if one looks here-best place to look for short opportunities if the market weakens

Nasdaq (QQQ) Has to stay strong for the others!

ETFs:  

XLF (Financials) Still under the 50 DMA which remains troubling as a possible double top from July and September still in play

SMH (Semiconductors) Maybe through 40.40 it wil get some momentum back

XRT (Retail) 83.24 is the 2013 high to clear

IYT (Transportation) This will look better over 119.45

IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day

IYR (Real Estate) confirmed recovery phase-and an inside day

XHB (Homebuilders)

GLD Keep reading how bullish some are here-see no signs to be though unless it clears 130.00 Subscribers: Filled gap from Tuesday’s opening, which means watching for a short opportunity if it rolls over 

USO (US Oil Fund) Through 37.65 expect more upside

OIH (Oil Services) Came back nicely putting this back on the radar

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Didn’t disappoint

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Through 76.12 expect to see rates rise a bit and talk of taper begin

VXX Subscribers: 14.96 the 50 DMA

EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Inside day

FXI (China) Subscribers: Inside day, confirms the accumulation phase and long on the opening range reversal

SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Been calling the bottom here for some time, and now, an unconfirmed accumulation phase

Bye for Now!

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