According to the weekend analysis, the direction of the indices that the first 30 minutes of Monday’s session took, would establish the trend for the next couple of sessions thereafter.
All indices turned down and afforded a good short entry-but for what timeframe? After all,NASDAQ tested the 50 DMA coming back to close above it in spite of its red day. The Dowheld the 50 DMA. IWM of course, had the worst day of the 4-proving out the theory of the phases where one should sell the weak and buy the strong. SPY never came close to the overhead 50 DMA and closed red, but held last Friday’s low.
Therefore, the foregone conclusion on which timeframe is best for now? Day to at most miniswing trades. This market is not a place I wish to commit to for much longer as it either roars, belly flops, or stands still in search of fresh news.
Overall, I can make the argument for lower prices in store. However, issue is by when? The market can have a rally, even a great one and still wind up down a lot by the end of the year. To put in another way, “Timing really is nearly everything. And what it isn’t, circumstance makes up for.” Steven Van Zandt
S&P 500 (SPY) 197.60 the 50 DMA which could not clear, yet close enough to give bulls hope Subscribers: Positive Pivots in DIA SPY Negative in IWM Neutral QQQs
Russell 2000 (IWM) Calling 108.80 pivotal with 110 the Holy Grail and under Monday’s low trouble
Dow (DIA) Winner for best shape, and best hope of holds around 169.50
Nasdaq (QQQ) 97.75-98.00 turned out as a pivotal area but marginally. Unless it clears convincingly from here, looks heavy
XLF (Financials) Held the fast moving average but looks like its backing away from the reversal top it had put in 9/19
SMH (Semiconductors) Had to prove itself today over 50 DMA and could not-wont dismiss that chance but for now, defensive
IYT (Transportation) Broke down under the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed warning phase
IBB (Biotechnology) Could not hold 272-hard to make a strong bullish case but does have the 50 DMA below
XRT (Retail) 50 DMA too much for it as it fell over 1%
IYR (Real Estate) An unchanged close doesn’t impress me although we can say its holding the 200 DMA
ITB (US Home Construction) Maybe double bottom-like to see even more evidence
GLD Typical this year to see this take out 2 year lows and then put in a possible bottoming reversal candle
USO (US Oil Fund) Back over 34.00 which means could hold and try for higher again
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Subscribers: Really really oversold so will watch
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Good news is we will get a chance to buy it cheaper when it turns around
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Rates continue to drop
UUP (Dollar Bull) Uh-oh, should have booked that trip to Europe on Friday-Monday this fell off but holding the fast moving average
IFN (India Fund Inc.) Subscribers: Holding the 50 DMA
EWW (Mexico) Subscribers: If holds today’s lows still worth watching
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) If holds Monday’s lows still worth watching
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Woke up over the 10 DMA
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Touched the 50 DMA and still looking like its bottoming
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Cash has an unconfirmed phase change to recovery
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Off she went
