Existing Position: Long FITB 19.10
Name of Instrument: Fifth Third Bancorp
Current Price: 20.01
Sell Stop: 18.33
First Target: 20.97
Reason For Trade: Crossed 80 monthly this year, close to 2013 highs on daily, long term growth potential
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Existing Position: Long XHB 30.70
Name of Instrument: SPDR S&P Homebuilders
Current Price: 30.20
Once Filled Sell Stop: 29.47
First Target: 32.59 Sell ¼-1/3
Reason for Trade: Tested and Held the 50 and 200 DMAs. Has potential to take out the existing 2013 highs
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Existing Position: Long TEX: 35.00
Current Price: 34.79
Name of Instrument: Terex Corp
Sell Stop: 33.14
First Target: 37.09 Sell ¼-1/3
Reason for Trade: Good earnings report and crossing the 80 monthly moving average second time this year, which hasn’t happened since 2008.
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Existing Position: Long XRT 82.78
Current Price: 84.87
No Loss Stop: 82.78
First Target: 85.77 for 1/2
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After Thursday’s nasty selloff, the Russell 2000 (IWM), the S&P 500 (SPY), NASDAQ (QQQ) and many individual instruments finished off the week with inside days. In IWM, the top of Thursday’s red candle lines up well with the lows from October. This is an important resistance level to clear, and IWM has a lot of work to do to be able to clear this level. I will be watching NASDAQ to see if it can hold the low (81.35) from the runaway gap made on October 18. If this level is broken, the 50 DMA will be compelling. I will be paying close attention to the inside days in the indices, as the direction that they break can be a very good indicator for the direction of the next move in the overall market. It may even set the tone for the balance of 2013. Furthermore, the potential Fed taper or at least the perception of one, is in the market now and seemingly waning in significance, although certain sectors will not be as resilient towards the notion of rates firming. Therefore, traders will be best served to stick with the strongest groups and definitely be aware of the inside day range break, especially in the Russell's.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day. This needs to hold Thursday’s low at 174.76 and clear 177.31 for more confidence in this index. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all indices
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day wedged between the 50 DMA and the 10 DMA. Needs to clear Thursday’s high. See above.
Dow (DIA) Friday’s low is an important level to hold. If that level breaks look for 154.87 as next support.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside day. 80.87 is the high before it gapped up. If that is not filled, very good sign.
XLF (Financials) Beautiful move on Friday. 20.93 is next resistance.
SMH (Semiconductors) Tested and held support on the upward sloping 50 DMA.
XRT (Retail) Inside day. Watch for Friday’s low to hold and Friday’s high to clear.
IYT (Transportation) Inside day. Thursday’s low is an important level to hold. If that breaks. The low from the 10/22 gap should be next support.
IBB (Biotechnology) Thursday’s low is an important level to hold. 206.19 is the overhead 50 DMA.
IYR (Real Estate) Confirmed the bearish phase. 63.13 is support.
XHB (Homebuilders) 30.00 now the support area to hold. Confirmed the warning phase.
GLD These doji candles just prove that this has fallen out of favor to trade. Gapped lower to support.
USO (US Oil Fund) Perhaps a sign of deflation
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day on the 50 DMA. Watch which way the range breaks.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Gapped higher and is now in an unconfirmed Bull Phase.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Confirmed the phase change to Recovery.
Bye for Now!
