Really, until the market breaks the range of the first two weeks one way or another, this is noise! However, I noted all last week how disturbing and potentially disruptive the many sectors and groups floundering as 3 out of 4 indices ran to new highs might be.
Counting on a few tech, pharma and solar names to hold everything up seems as flimsy as expecting a single beam to keep a roof secure.
The most fascinating aspect of the market for me right now-the shifting relationship between the US dollar, interest rates, and the metals.
The dollar looks like its bottoming as do both gold, silver (not to mention many miners and copper). If one were to represent that anomaly pictorially, it might look like Picasso’s Cubist Period
S&P 500 (SPY) Could be nothing more than a 2-day correction from the highs since the183.45 area or fast moving average held. Subscribers: Negative pivots in all except DIA
Russell 2000 (IWM) New highs but not quite the reversal strong enough to scream, “Everyone out of the pool!” just yet
Dow (DIA) Although didn’t quite clear 165, it could be forming a bull flag which the market would find relieving
Nasdaq (QQQ) Like SPY, could be just a correction, could be worse
XLF (Financials) Ball and chain or resting-still indecisive
SMH (Semiconductors) Not unexpected after Intel earnings to see this gap lower. Did, however, hold the fast moving average
IYT (Transportation) Another one we hope merely corrected to the fast moving average
IBB (Biotechnology) Still strong if not a bit extended
XRT (Retail) Where public sentiment lives it seems-closer to the 200 than the 50 DMA right now
IYR (Real Estate) 65.06 resistance to clear with 64.00 support to hold
XHB (Homebuilders) Will test the 50 DMA this week for sure only a few cents away. But, will it hold?
GLD Over 121.04, close your eyes and follow
USO (US Oil Fund) Perhaps the theme this week will be more of a move to raw materials and the like
OIH (Oil Services) Looks ok here but under the 50 DMA
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs Hard to believe except for the fact that the economy is not as robust as the FED would like
UUP (Dollar Bull) Confirmed phase change to recovery. Subscribers: Long for a swing trade for technical reasons
KRE (Regional Banks) Subscribers: Has to clear 40.56 and did better than most
IFN (India Fund) Subscribers: Now that we got the weekly close over 20.00, will look here for a move over 20.27 or R1
EWG (Germany) Still a candidate now that island gap was filled
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: The longer it holds 30.00, the better I like a move over Friday’s high as good bottoming sign
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: 60.00 not out of the question
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Over 23.30 compelling entry for swing
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Couldn’t confirm the phase change now back to warning-also unconfirmed
BONUS for Advantage
**PLAN: With the calendar range in the overall indices yet unclear which way it will break, will focus primarily on the following:
6. Go through the 2014 picks both long and short, and focus on those that have already taken out the one day and two week range for swing trades
Bye for Now!
