Market Analysis for Trading on 12/4/2013

Mish Schneider | December 3, 2013

New Position: Long THC: 42.77

Name of Instrument: Tenet Healthcare

Current Price: 43.15

Sell Stop: 41.19

First Target: 44.77 for 1/2

Reason For Trade: Had a Golden Cross early November. Then price corrected under the moving averages. Now, holding the 10 DMA. Good risk anticipating could return above averages for move to over 44.00 and beyond, especially given the Health Care Act.

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Existing Position: FCG Long 19.61

Name of Instrument: First Trust ISE Reserve Natural Gas

Sell Stop: 18.67

Current Price: 19.69

First Target:  20.77 for 1/3 to ½

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Existing Position:  Long IGT 17.96

Name of Instrument: International Game Technology

Current Price: 17.28

Sell Stop: 16.24

First Target: 19.24 for ½ off

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Existing Position: Long FITB 19.10

Name of Instrument: Fifth Third Bancorp

Current Price: 19.99

**Raised: Sell Stop: 19.10

First Target: 20.97

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Existing Position: Long XHB 30.70

Name of Instrument: SPDR S&P Homebuilders

Current Price: 31.16

Sell Stop: 30.57

FIRST TARGET 32.34-sell 1/2

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Existing Position: Long TEX
: 35.00 ½ position

Current Price: 36.24

Name of Instrument: Terex Corp

Sell Stop: 35.00 No loss stop

***REACHED! First Target: 37.09 Sold 1/2

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Existing Position: Long XRT 82.78 ¼ position remaining

Current Price: 87.79

**Raised-Profitable Trailing Stop: 86.44

First Target: 85.77 for ½

REACHED **Second Target: 87.49 sold another ½ of remaining balance

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I wouldn’t call it extraordinary volume, but volume did come in on the S&P 500, Dow and NASDAQ giving them all a distribution day. However, the small caps or Russell 2000s, which tipped us off on this correction, not only held the fast moving average, but after Monday’s decline on decent volume, did not at least post a second distribution day (when the volume exceeds the day prior and the price closes down from the previous closing price). Therefore, as the bullish trend is not at threat of abating currently, one must take this action for what it mostly likely is-a healthy correction. That’s not to say the market will reverse from here and roar to new highs-but, I would be looking for outperformers, especially in certain sectors and groups.

S&P 500 (SPY) After a 2-day correction, today’s high becomes an important area to clear. Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) 111.60 pivotal

Dow (DIA) After a 2-day correction, today’s high becomes an important area to clear.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Vote for the index most likely to succeed if clears today’s high

XLF (Financials) 21.04 area held and should continue to do so

SMH (Semiconductors) Here is a group to focus on-never ran with the indices to new 2013 highs and still from a longer term perspective, has miles to go

XRT (Retail) Hard to get negative here in December making this another place to look for setups

IYT (Transportation) Doesn’t look done correcting

IBB (Biotechnology) Went from 213 to 225 so a correction midpoint is around 219. Today’s low 220.07

IYR (Real Estate) Not out of the question for a pop if it clears today’s high clears

XHB (Homebuilders) The 50 DMA is key here now

GLD Held up, but not by much. Subscribers: A place to look for a short

USO (US Oil Fund) Textbook island bottom

OIH (Oil Services) In the warning phase, 47.50 has to hold 

XLE (Energy) Another group to go to especially since the bull phase is well intact

EWG (Germany) Possible island top if confirms on Wednesday

FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Subscribers: 20.00 pivotal

Bye for Now!

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