Market Analysis for Trading on 12/4/2014

Mish Schneider | December 4, 2014

Prepared by Geoff Bysshe, President of MarketGauge, filling in for Mish until December 8th

Pressure Is Mounting

SPY and DIA nudged higher and set new highs while the QQQ and IWM remained in consolidation. For all practical purposes nothing has changed since yesterday so I’m not going to over analyze the situation.

I only have three things to note going into tomorrow.

-New highs moved up nicely and new lows declined. One day does not solve the problem but it’s a step in the right direction.

-Tomorrow we will get employment data and any surprise there can could lead to a big move in either direction.

-Interest rate firmed today after rising for the last two days. TLT held its support where it should have if the recent breakout is one that will move higher. What how stocks react to any big move in this over the next two days of jobs reports.

S&P 500 (SPY) A new high close at recent resistance Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) Showed the most strength today with a close near the highs

Dow (DIA) Another new high close.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Held the 10 DMA on a doji day, I would like to see this back over 106.00

XLF (Financials) Broke out of the recent consolidation on light volume

KRE (Regional Banks) Broke out of the inside day with strength and confirmed the phase change

SMH (Semiconductors) Closed on new highs but is starting to get extended on the weekly and monthly RSI

IYT (Transportation) Improved in condition

IBB (Biotechnology) A new high close but looking more extended with a hammer doji

XRT (Retail) Bounced back strong after a two day correction

IYR (Real Estate) Doji day near the highs, needs a close over 77.10 to get moving again

ITB (US Home Construction) Started the day strong only to sell off and close on the lows

GLD (Gold Trust) Unconfirmed phase change to recovery

GDX (Gold Miners) Failed to break the 50 DMA at 19.96

USO (US Oil Fund) Again quiet. 2 inside days at the lows. Eyes here to see which way the break out will go

OIH (Oil Services) Quiet

XLE (Energy) Starting to look better.

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) major resistance at 52.71 the 80 monthly. This will have a hard time trying to get up again

UNG (US NatGas Fund) Broke support at 19.68. Not looking good!

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Cheap oil isn’t helping this any, but it is trying

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs rallied just short of PDH

UUP (Dollar Bull) Another new multi-year high close. Extended?

IFN (India Fund Inc.) New 2014 high close

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