Market Analysis for Trading on 3/25/2014

Mish Schneider | March 24, 2014

Although I went away from the market for 7 trading days, it seems I’m looking right at the same prices (give or take) and the same analysis as though time did not pass at all.

Incidentally, thank you Mathew Mullins for filling in for me and making sure our readers continued to receive their daily email!

The notable features heading into this week:

  1. 1. The market internals began the session pointing up-ended the session pointing down
  2. 2. NASDAQ had huge volume and a Distribution day-closed red-Plus, had an unconfirmed phase change to warning.
  3. 3. SPY (S&P 500) -IWM and DIA as well- maintain the topping pattern set in place March 7th.
  4. 4. Semiconductors showing early warning signs of topping action while the Financials are borderline
  5. 5. Biotechnology exit stage left as the leader of the pack.
  6. 6. Short-term Interest rates continue to drop.

S&P 500 (SPY) 183.40 the 50 DMA to watch. Over 187 a new ball game perhaps Subscribers: Negative pivots

Russell 2000 (IWM) 115.50 the 50 DMA to watch. Over 118.30 new life

Dow (DIA) 161 the 50 DMA but with a negative slope do not expect it to be major support

Nasdaq (QQQ) A close over 88.40 will reverse the unconfirmed phase change. Otherwise, March came in like a lamb but could be going out like a lion

XLF (Financials) 22.17 the fast moving average. Still in play if holds up

SMH (Semiconductors) 44.50 the fast moving average. Still in play if holds up

IYT (Transportation) Outperformed and could still head higher if clears Monday’s highs

IBB (Biotechnology) Not quite oversold but rallies should be met with selling

XRT (Retail) Without retail, market will have issues. 83.30 key support

IYR (Real Estate) 67.00 is the weekly moving average and ultimately the place to defend by the end of this week

XHB (Homebuilders) Not pretty but now a bit overdone

GLD If this cannot hold 125.50 to 125.00 not a good sign

USO (US Oil Fund) Some will see an inside day and some will see more toppiness. The 50 DMA is last support to hold if good

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Holding the 10 DMA. 69.30 should hold. Looks great over 71.27.

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) new lows

EEM (Emerging Markets) Subscribers: Inside day-we covered half as short getting stale

FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Subscribers: Have tiny long on the Opening Range Reversal and would only add if clears the 50 DMA 34.82

CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Nice move up today-Like to see 33.00 hold now

Bye for Now!

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