It seems our Modern Family comprised of The Russell 2000s, Retail, Biotechnology, Semiconductors, Regional Banks and Transportation ETFs are a solid herd. Remember however, that the Chinese New Year encompasses goats and rams as well. That must explain how as a family unit or herd, they pretty much stay together; yet as individuals, some morph into rams or goats depending upon if they feel like climbing mountains or simply bleating at the fence.
Checking in on our Modern Family: The Russell 2000s took a backseat (or a more sheepish position) to the rest of the herd. 125.60 is a good number to watch clear and 122 to watch hold.
Biotechnology’s held over 344 and now needs to clear 360. Retail held on, more goat than ram-like and now needs to keep its footing at 100 and soar past 102. Semiconductors took the permission we gave it on Wednesday to take the lead and like a true proud Ram, closed above the 50 DMA.
Regional Banks haven’t quite hurdled over 41.20 yet. Now, 40.00 becomes even more important. But the pleasant surprise came from our Transportation sib who jumped back over the 200 DMA and seemed to stabilize the rest of the family as a result.
With interest rates rising and the Long 20-year Treasuries back in an unconfirmed warning phase under the 50 DMA, commodities lost some ground. However, not too badly in both sugar and cotton. Gold dropped but held 114, what I see as the best underlying support. Oil continues to hold the 50 DMA as long as it stays above 17.80 the closest important support level.
Everything pretty much continues to trade in a range of its own, chopping around, with the occasional slaughter or clean getaway (until realizing it’s now separated from the herd. Then it finds its way back to the herd or the range). There are many examples of both scenarios. Thursday we saw a lot of semiconductors take off with Solar City one of the larger gainers. The slaughter came to the real estate sector and some its instruments.
Point is at the end of the day, we see a lot of rotation, but the family basically remains intact, holding each other up in check, not letting anyone stray too far.
I am breaking out of my range and heading to vacation starting Friday, returning Monday, April 20th. I hope you all keep these images in your mind and stay calm.
Jonathan Griffin, my assistant will be keeping up with the commentary, but more focused on the individual Indices and ETFs.
Peace out and thanks so much for your loyal follow!
S&P 500 (SPY) Confirmed Bullish Phase. 209.36 next resistance and 207 support.Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Dow (DIA) Confirmed Bullish Phase. Over 180.16 best case, otherwise, like to see it continue to hold 177.70 and better still, the 50 DMA
Nasdaq (QQQ) Confirmed Bullish Phase. 108.20 and over a very good sign. 107 support and then 104.70 the major underlying support.
XLF (Financials) Confirmed Bullish Phase. The consolidation is notable. Has to clear 24.30
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed Return to a Bullish Phase.
IYT (Transportation) Really like to see this hold the 200 DMA and get more north of it. Otherwise, good barometer should it fail
IBB (Biotechnology) 344 a near term support level.
XRT (Retail) Consolidating so now major worries at this point
IYR (Real Estate) Here’s the one that separated from the herd. March support comes in at 76.30 area now
ITB (US Home Construction) Has snap whenever it drops which makes this very much a contender over 28.50
GLD (Gold Trust) Low volume decline with 114-116 the range for now to watch
OIH (Oil Services) Big day here clearing resistance at 35.50
XLE (Energy) 78.00 support and over 81.00 looks great.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Another great performance
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 42.79 is the 50 DMA even though the TLTs broke its 50 DMA
UUP (Dollar Bull) over 26.00. Should keep going now
IFN (India Fund Inc.) Cleared the 50 DMA.
EWW (Mexico) Like to see this hold 60.00.
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Wowza-again
EWY (South Korea) Like this
RSX (Russia) Getting closer to the 200 DMA
CORN (Corn) Over 26.00 gets interesting
SGG (Sugar) 13.00 in cash next place to clear