Open Trade Update
Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02
Stop: 32.74
Target: 40.00
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Market Analysis for Trading on 4/23/2013
After last week's emotional bearish dip, we may now be seeing a continuation of this year's bullish trend. Although the week started off choppy and with relatively light volume, all fours indexes held or broke through key points. It seems like this roller coaster that we are on may now be going uphill. The S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Avg. both tested the 50 DMA and then had nice bounces off of it (both clearing Friday's high). IWM tested and climbed up from the 89.00 area, which has been support both last week and in February. The QQQs are also doing well and are now in an unconfirmed bullish phase (although this move is largely weighted by the impressive 3.5% jump in MSFT). TBTs are coiling and GLD went sideways after a nice gap this morning.
NOTE: Today's evening watch was prepared by Matt Mullins. Mish will be back tomorrow.
S&P 500 (SPY) SPY confirmed its bullish phase after turning to warning last Thursday. After testing the 50 DMA, it had a nice bounce. Next hurdle is the 10 DMA. Subscribers: Pivots positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held and began its climb up from the 89.00 area of support, which held last week and in February as well. This is the weakest of the indexes but, is holding on and is beginning to look better.
Dow (DIA) This is defending the 144.00 area very well but, needs to clear 146.50 to really go. Subscribers: Pivots positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Back in an unconfirmed Bullish phase, after last week's bounce off of the 200 DMA. Subscribers: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD Went sideways after the gap up this morning. Subscribers: Read Keith's market outlook from last Friday for more analysis.
XLF (Financials) Held the 50 DMA to confirm a bull phase. To be fully convinced, would want to see this clear 18.30. Otherwise, 17.75 is key support to hold.
IBB (Biotechnology) This sector has been amazing, as it continues to make all- time highs!! It looks tired with today's doji day, but it may just be taking a pause before it continues it's accent.
SMH (Semiconductors) Cleared the previously mentioned 35.13 level. In other words, bullish and still bullish for this group. 35.39 next hurdle. Subscribers: Will look at an add this week if holds well.
XRT (Retail) Defending the 50 DMA nicely. Looking good.
IYT (Transportation) Tested the 50 DMA and then retreated back. Subscribers: 107.80 and the 50 DMA needs to clear.
IYR (Real Estate) This closed above Friday's high and held the 10 DMA
USO (US Oil Fund) Glass bottom in play as long as recent lows hold.
OIH (Oil Services) Unconfirmed phase change today as it pushed through the 200 DMA. Inside day.
XLE (Energy) Unclear about whether this will hold the 200 DMA or not. Over Friday's high encouraging but under 73.50, trouble.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 59.50 huge support to hold. Doji day, after two inside days. Subscribers: Looks like it's coiling. Big eyes here
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Cleared the 200 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change to warning.
XHB (Homebuilders) Could be back as a contender if it clears the 50 DMA.
UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.58 is the 200 weekly moving average
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: Inside day.
FXI (China) Subscribers: 35.50 level now should hold
Bye for Now!
