Rarely do I focus on the actual price of the Dow, but I have had so much fun lately with the reference to the Simpsons’ episode “Terror at 5 ½ Feet” and Terror at 18,000 in the Dow, I decided to pay more attention.
To review, the terror (or gremlin) for the Dow was seeing a Fed Interest Rate hikehanging on the side of the school bus or not and what that would entail for the market.
So far this week, the Long 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF has declined fairly significantly, entering into an unconfirmed Warning Phase as of Wednesday. Yet, the Dow closed back over 18,000 seemingly getting used to the idea that a rate hike is not only likely, but feasible and most likely prudent.
As to the question I asked myself Monday night re: how can you tell folks to be long gold at the same time you are telling them that you believe the Federal Reserve will begin to nominally raise rates? I answered myself, not a bad self-query.
On Tuesday we saw a rise in both interest rates and gold. Wednesday, though gold took a hit, it remains well within its recent trading range parameters, albeit closer to the lows of that range.
Given I have seen our Modern Family consistently hold one another up, taking turns on which member leads and which one lags, Wednesday, Semiconductors had the largest percentage gain. But Transportation was the most impressive, moving further away from the 200 DMA and now, heading back towards the 50 DMA.
The emerging megatrends, such as cyber security, solar energy, and the expanding debate on legalizing medical and eventually recreational marijuana, continue to capture our attention and trading capital. Also add 3-D printing to that group.
The Dow hit 18,000 for the first time on December 23, 2014. A photograph of Peter Tuchman, a member of the NYSE for over 30 years, wearing a DOW 18,000 hat went virile. As I dug further into Mr. Tuchman who is called, “The Most Photographed Trader in the World”, I found an article where he defended himself against allocations that referred to him as a relic, after all, most humans on the trading floor have been replaced with electronics. He called himself a survivor.
I’m certain he kept that hat!
S&P 500 (SPY) It hasn’t traded over 211.27 since March3rd, so that should be a strong place to clear. Support now, at Wednesday’s low Subscribers: Positive Pivots SPY QQQ Negative DIA IWM
Russell 2000 (IWM) Over 126.25 better and support down below at the 50 DMA before we say game changer
Dow (DIA) Unconfirmed Phase Change Back to BULLISH 181.67 a huge point to clear with 178 key support to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) With some big names reporting soon, at this point, it looks poised for higher provided it holds 105
XLF (Financials) Choppy but holding around 24.00
KRE (Regional Banks) Next close over 41.74 excellent. Support down to the 50 DMA at 40.70
SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed bullish phase. 56.00 now key support
IYT (Transportation) 160 resistance, 158 pivotal and 156 major support
IBB (Biotechnology) In the spirit of the modern family, big bro did his job and kicked up his feed on Wednesday
XRT (Retail) 102.50 place to clear for a new leg up but has to hold 97.00 on the downside
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day.
ITB (US Home Construction) Staying away from this for now since in an unconfirmed warning phase
GLD (Gold Trust) Unconfirmed bearish phase. 113.40 should hold if this is going to hold up-then its 110. Over 116.25 new ballgame
USO (US Oil Fund) Corrected to a decent support level so assuming setting up for a new long. Over Wednesday’s high good.
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day
XLE (Energy) After the basing action, has follow through with the 200 DMA above looking like its calling its name-and an inside day
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) May never get a correction again!
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Over the 50 DMA with 44.00 the next place to clear
UUP (Dollar Bull) Held the 50 DMA at 25.57
EWW (Mexico) Watching this to get back over 60.00