Open Trade Update
Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02
Stop: 32.74
Target: 40.00
Existing Position: XLF Long 18.38
Stop: 17.59
Target: 19.49
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Market Analysis for Trading on 4/25/2013
As the dust settles on AAPL and the question remains on whether its worth will be measured as a value/dividend play with a potential kicker to the upside if products are released,NASDAQ had an inside day. S&P 500 ended with a firm but somewhat indecisive doji candle (when the opening and closing prices are nearly identical). The Russell 2000 confirmed back to a bullish phase and the Dow closed right on a fairly important pivotal level in price 146.50. There was a new rotation into Oil and Gas with Biotechnology completely out of favor after a dismal performance by Amgen Inc. Incidentally, we did also point out the 2 doji candles the last 2 days in the Biotech ETF and mentioned yesterday, the fuel tank was pointing towards empty. The damage done on 4/15 (now, forever etched in our minds as the day of the Boston Marathon bombing) is yet to be undone; therefore, we are keeping the number and size of long positions manageable. Other countries ETFs like China and Russia both firmed-they have been so incredibly beat up that there is little surprise some catch up is in the works.
S&P 500 (SPY) 158.13 is the top of the nasty sell off day on April 15th. On an intraday basis that area cleared, but not on a closing basis. That is now a point I'd like to see in the rear view mirror. 156.70 is the point to hold Subscribers: Pivots positive in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) The high of the same nasty red candle day from 4/15 is 93.15.
Dow (DIA) This did not even come close to the high of 4/15. As all phases are bullish, the trend is one to be followed.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Inside day and its 4/15 high is 69.79 to clear.
ETFs:
GLD Gapped up. It still seems that the rally will fizzle with new lows in store, but not advisable to push it from the short side.
XLF (Financials) 18.65 is the 2013 high now to clear
IBB (Biotechnology) Brick wall if continues its southern journey. However, a breather here is well-deserved
SMH (Semiconductors) New 2-year high close-guess who is happy? Subscribers: 36.00 level really should now hold
XRT (Retail) 72.79 is its 4/15 high with support now at 71.30
IYT (Transportation) Confirmed the bullish phase as long as it respects the 50 DMASubscribers: 108.84-if takes that level out, especially on a gap, will look to add
IYR (Real Estate) Matched the high of 4/12 and closed one tick above. Watch for either a continuation up or a potential double top
USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed a base for now in its current bear phase
OIH (Oil Services) A continuation over the 200 DMA and right to the 50 DMA. This now needs some digestion
XLE (Energy) The 50 DMA now resistance
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 59.50 huge support to hold. Like it over today's high Subscribers: Got long and bailed but for swing, nothing got violated. Therefore, will look for a new entry over 60.40
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration)Today was the day if you are a believer of the 200 DMA support Subscribers: Entry tweeted at 56.70. Now, the resistance overhead is close by
XHB (Homebuilders) 30.00 back on watch
UUP (Dollar Bull) Still needs to clear the weekly moving average
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: Made a new low today. Lesson here is waiting for that phase changed that never happened was prudent
FXI (China) Subscribers: the 200 DMA is real close
RSX (Russia) Subscribers: Bought it on the opening range reversal, took some profit and holding the rest to see if can get above 26.50-where it will be an add
Bye for Now!
