Open Trade Update
Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02
Stop: 35.02 (note-in our swing trading system, once you have 2 ATRs in profit, you can raise to a no loss stop)
Target: 40.00
Existing Position: XLF Long 18.38
Stop: 17.59
Target: 19.49
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That April 15th high taunts us in all the indexes with only the S&P 500 closing the week out above it. Friday was such a slow day, I was able to lunch with the ladies, a most welcome respite after an exhausting but highly profitable week thanks to holding WYNN until right before earnings and Intel (INTC) from right after earnings. Plus, a long position in the ETF for semiconductors. All week long, the thought that ran through many investors heads is how hard the market is working to stay strong. Typically, the stock market is a predictor not a laggard, around 6 months ahead of the economic facts. So, in spite of the markets inability to end the week on new highs, ending darn close to them has to mean the anticipation is for some positive numbers ahead. Of course, always subject to change, the savvy traders take profits on the rallies and look for buy opportunities on the dips.
S&P 500 (SPY) Low volume retreat from the highs but, held the 4/15 high 158.13. That becomes a good number to judge how Monday might go from. Above, confidence abounds, below, another trip to the 156 level Subscribers: Pivots negative in all indexes (DIA more neutral)
Russell 2000 (IWM) 93.15 is the pivotal 4/15 high. It tested the 50 DMA and held. But, every rally in this index has made lower highs. Still a reason for caution here. Subscribers: Signs of weakness and heading back for a look see at TWM
Dow (DIA) Closed green but not above the 4/15 high. Fueled the rally a few weeks ago. If it gives it up next week, will change bias to a more negative one. Subscribers: Neutral Pivots making R1 and S1 equally important.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Friday's high was just under the 4/15 high 69.79. But, it didn't close alarmingly therefore, good place to check out for a move above or below Friday's high
ETFs:
GLD 140 is a big level-if defends it, still looking like an island bottom. If not, good place to look for a short Subscribers: Maintained its positive pivots
XLF (Financials) 18.50 pivotal. 18.20 big support
SMH (Semiconductors) If this dips to 35.40, see that as a buy opportunity Subscribers: Hanging in there with a no loss stop at 35.00 level
XRT (Retail) Cleared 72.79, its 4/15 high, ending the week with an inside day. Strength here is a good sign.
IYT (Transportation) Closed right at the 4/15 high both Thursday and Friday and with a doji day. Subscribers: Looking for a new long entry if 108 holds.
IYR (Real Estate) Two doji days in a row, then ended the week with an inside day. Could be signs of fatigue unless it clears the new highs Subscribers: 2 days negative pivots-making R1 important
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day just below the 50 DMA. After the big move up, looks more like a rest than a top
OIH (Oil Services) Another group making lower highs on every move up. Subscribers: More negative than positive here
XLE (Energy) The 50 DMA remains resistance ending the week with a doji candle. Subscribers: Didn't hit the chandelier exit on Friday so holding tail
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Closed weak although held the recent low 58.97. Subscribers: A gap higher would be good to follow. Otherwise, aside again until its clearer
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Began 2013 with a very bullish move and since its peak high in March, making lower highs. Subscribers: Aside now
XHB (Homebuilders) Friday, even with the strong session, could not clear 30.66, the 2013 high.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Still needs to clear the 200 weekly moving average.
FXI (China) Subscribers: Confirmed the phase change to warning if the 200 DMA holds up. If clears the 50 DMA will look even better
RSX (Russia) Subscribers: Holding the balance of the position. If can get above 26.50, it will be an add
