Cancel the BUY stop in AWAY from today’s email alert. Most likely, we will not enter any new trades until next week since sitting over a weekend does not give us a great advantage!
Open Trade Update
Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02 (½-2/3 position remaining)
Current Price: 38.49
Stop: (38.24 sell stop on ½ the existing position 35.47 balance)
Target: 40.00
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Existing Position: XLF Long 18.38
Current Price: 19.18 (Got 5 ticks away from the profit target)
Stop: 18.79
Target: 19.38 (That is 5 ATRs so make sure you lock in and can keep ¼ to ½ position to ride it out with trailing stops posted)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Existing Position SGG Long 62.90
Current Price: 62.55
Stop: 61.38
First Target: 65.90
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Market Analysis for Trading on 5/10/2013
The market got a glimpse of what havoc could be wreaked if the FED decides to reverse the Quantitative Easing Policy that has been in effect for quite some time. However, what could that possibly mean under the surface? For starters, it could mean that the rates will rise, along with the US dollar which indicates that the FED might have more confidence that the patient (The US Economy) can continue to improve without the IV drip. (Mission Accomplished to appropriate yet another hackneyed phrase!) Be that as it may, our job is not to judge what the powers that be do, rather to anticipate what impact that might have on the markets and in particular, which groups will do well and which ones will suffer. And most likely, nothing will happen other than a repeat of the usual-economy improving, will keep policy in place, until such time as-blah, blah, blah.
S&P 500 (SPY) One red day since last Friday doth not a top make. However, some healthy correction wouldn’t be so bad either. Until gap low from last Friday violated-noise. Subscribers: Neutral Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) 97-98.00 reasonable target it holds 95.00 Subscribers: Pivots Negative
Dow (DIA) 152-53 resistance and same deal with gap low as support to hold Subscribers: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) A chance today was a reversal candle, but has unless it breaks the gap low at 71.91 hard call to make. 74.00 still a target Subscribers: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD A weekly close under 140.55 and the recent bounce from the lows could be history
XLF (Financials) 19.38 overhead resistance Inside day. Subscribers: Got pretty close to target of 5 ATRs at 19.38 (Described options for exiting on today’s video)
IBB (Biotechnology) With a reverse candle sitting at the recent highs, could be vulnerable if that does not clear
SMH (Semiconductors) Broke over an 11 year channel, but also a bit overbought now. Subscribers: Got pretty close to target of 8 ATRs. (Described options for exiting on today’s video)
XRT (Retail) No runaway gap here so a good place to see how this recent move digests
IYT (Transportation) Subscribers: Could be a brick wall, but I rather say an opportunity to see a correction to get back into this group.
IYR (Real Estate) Taking a breath
USO (US Oil Fund) As long as this holds the 200 DMA still in a more positive phase
OIH (Oil Services) 45.12 is the 2013 high
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Rumor sensitive, but for us, still thinking a buy especially if holds 62.20.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 60.00 resistance Subscribers: Held the 50 DMA and now needs to get through 60.00
UUP (Dollar Bull) Watching that 200 weekly moving average like a hawk
UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) Subscribers: Like to see the 50 DMA clear
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: Still resting if holds 61.76
FXI (China) Subscribers: Correcting now.
Bye for Now!
