New Trade: OIH Buy Stop 44.44 (1/2 of your normal position size)
Instrument Name: OIH Market Vectors Oil Services
Position: Long ½ position
Stop: 42.24
Current Price: 44.30
First Target: 53.00-55.00
Trade Description: Clearing the 80 monthly moving average and forming a base going back over 2 years. We are buying ½ position now and will add once it clears the 2013 high 45.12
Open Trade Update
Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02 (1/4 position left)
Current Price: 38.29
Stop: Took off any of the remaining position on a 38.34 sell stop -a chandelier exit with over 8 ATRs of profit. Hold the ¼ position now 35.39 stop
Target: Holding ¼ position longer term-no specified target yet
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Existing Position: XLF Long 18.38 ½ position
Current Price: 19.31
Stop: 18.38
First Target: Today locked in at 19.33 ½ position (ticks from the 19.38 target of 5 ATRs from entry)
Second Target: 20.00
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Existing Position SGG Long 62.90
Current Price: 61.96
Stop: 61.38
First Target: 65.90
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Market Analysis for Trading on 5/14/2013
I want to call this a boring, low volume correction, but really, only some of the sectors and groups did some correcting. The indexes except for a smidgeon red in the DIA and Russell 2000, closed green. In bull markets, it’s not unusual to see corrections in time rather than price. It’s also not unusual to see divergence emerge in the varying groups. For example, Biotechnology, the sweetheart of 2012 and thus far 2013, did extremely well. Semiconductors finally settled down a bit along with Transportation and Retail. With earnings season winding down, the focus should continue to be on the FED’s future policy pertaining to easing up on the Quantitative Easing, the US dollar and interest rates. Otherwise, the start of the week has put the financial sector in the spotlight, particularly JP Morgan which closed up 1.5%.
S&P 500 (SPY) Eked out new highs but also worked off some of the near-term overbought conditions. Subscribers: Positive Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) 97-98.00 (got real close to today) reasonable target if holds 95.00. Subscribers: Pivots Positive
Dow (DIA) Inside day with 152-53 resistance with gap low from May 06th crucial point to hold. Subscribers: Pivots Slightly Negative-R1 important tomorrow
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 74.00 still a target but no reason 77-80.00 not in the cards unless this crashes from 71.80 Subscribers: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD Inside doji day.
XLF (Financials) After 2 inside days, this cleared Friday’s high making a new high 19.35 before settling just below. Subscribers: 19.38 is the 80 monthly moving average
IBB (Biotechnology) Whoa! Has 100% overbought on the weekly relative strength indicator.
SMH (Semiconductors) Corrected today. A move down to 37.00 would be good for a new entry
XRT (Retail) Minor correction after strong retail numbers early Monday.
IYT (Transportation) 112 would be a good place to see hold
IYR (Real Estate) Consolidating with housing starts coming up later this week Subscribers: R1 did not clear yet
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day. Subscribers: Over today’s high might be compelling
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day. 45.12 is the 2013 high and if clears, a very bullish sign Subscribers: Looking to add to the already long on strength
XLE (Energy) Inside day. Through 81.00 also has huge potential
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Confirmed bullish phase.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 60.00 resistance Subscribers: Held the 50 DMA and now needs to get through 60.00. Plus has to break the pattern of lower highs since the peak in March.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Now, 22.69 the 2013 high has to clear.
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: Broke 61.76 but closed above and 17.00 in the futures held so still in play
Bye for Now!
