Open Trade Update
Existing Position: OIH (44.89 average price of entry) Full Position
Position: Long
Current Price: 45.41
Stop: 42.57
Target: 50.00-53.00
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Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02 (1/4 position left)
Current Price: 38.56
Stop: 35.79
Target: Holding ¼ position longer term-no specified target yet
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Existing Position: XLF 1/4 position left
Current Price: 20.04
Stop: 18.49
First Target: Met and now have 8 ATRs
Second Target: Met at 20.00 -have ¼ position left
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Market Analysis for Trading on 5/22/2013
Most notable for Tuesday is that the Small Caps or Russell 2000 had an inside day (when the range of the day, high to low, is within the range of the day before). This interprets as a pause, which I find interesting as the other indexes S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow all took out Monday highs only to close below. And that’s the type of sleuthing this market now requires, especially ahead of the release of the FED minutes tomorrow. Intense sleuthing is necessary when the market stops at the highs to look around. We investors try to figure out whether the pause is to smell the roses and move on or to retreat into hibernation after too much sun exposure.
S&P 500 (SPY) Low volume everything intact but at the ready should selling come in under 166.50 Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indexes. S1 and today’s low line up
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day. Low volume. Good clue to see which way today’s range breaks tomorrow
Dow (DIA) The weekly Bollinger Band continues to rise-and with today’s close right on that number, certainly one to watch for a hold or failure of 153.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Today’s low, like in the other sectors, is a good point to watch.
ETFs:
GLD Defended and held 130.50 Monday and had an inside day today.
XLF (Financials) At 20.00 our swing position long from April was a good place to lighten up. Keeping a core long though, as unless this breaks the 50 DMA, a correction will look more like noise.
IBB (Biotechnology) Held the fast moving average with a bounce. If 179 level holds never count this one out completely.
SMH (Semiconductors) 38.00 is a retracement to the channel breakout on the monthly chart. Subscribers: 2 days under pivots so might be a good place to reenter if can clear 38.80
XRT (Retail) Negated the bearish candle from last week which is why confirmations are smart and necessary
IYT (Transportation) Under 116 expect some more correction here.
IYR (Real Estate) Got to the tippy top of the weekly Bollinger Band. Like all the other leading sectors, a rest would not be the worst thing in the world if you missed this last boat.
USO (US Oil Fund) 34.50 point to clear
OIH (Oil Services) After taking out the 2012 and recent 2013 high, a slight rest with 45.00 near-term support
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Until the FED minutes are released, hard to predict. But, looking at phase, hanging tough in the accumulation one
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Took a rest but still above a key trendline. Subscribers: A possible slingshot high but would have to confirm that.
XHB (Homebuilders) Needs to clear 32.55.
UUP (Dollar Bull) No island top since the gap to 22.88 was filled. Once above that area, the move up should continue
UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) Confirmed bullish phase
Bye for Now!
