The Annual Ute Bear Dance, a social dance, is held every spring. Origin of the Bear Dance can be traced back to the fifteenth century when the Spanish first came upon the Ute’s in the spring time. When the first thunder in the spring was heard, it was time for the Bear Dance.
As I looked out my window all day in New Mexico, the rain poured, the thunder roared and the bears danced!
However, the final hour of the trading day, the sun finally came out, just as the S&P 500held the intraday pivot point, NASDAQ held the 100 daily moving average, the Russell 2000s held Tuesday’s low plus the 6 month calendar range high ending the session with 4 members of my Economic Modern Family, Regional Banks (KRE), Biotechnology (IBB), Transportation (IYT) closing green.
With the tenacity of the Regional Bank sector, and as one who has been bravely touting the bullish forecast in KRE, of course I am asking myself whether KRE is the holdout that will turn out to be the last to know that the bull run is over, or is KRE the beacon of 2015, broadcasting the relentless optimism of the Federal Reserve for an expanding US Economy and it’s resolve to raise rates at some point this year?
In the spirit of our sheep pasture or trading range, these key levels that held up Wednesday in the aforementioned instruments, could stymie the bear dance if they continue to hold up as the market heads into yet another most-important-jobs-report-ever number Friday.
One thing for certain, the increase in rates this week or precipitous drop in the TLTs (20 Year Treasury Long Bonds) did some damage to the overall market. Yet percentagewise,TLTs dropped way more than the Dow did. While TLTs made new lows not seen since early December 2014, the Dow has not traded down to 2015 March lows. Simply put, the market is in a trading range while the prospect of higher rates has the market growing accustomed to that face.
S&P 500 (SPY) Confirmed the warning phase but held March lows. Until that breaks, cautiously range bound. Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Granddaddy, welcome back! Did you just make a new 60 day low to close on the top of your range? Are you done correcting? Over 121.75 will help. Otherwise, back to the March low 119.83
Dow (DIA) Confirmed the warning phase but held the 100 DMA
Nasdaq (QQQ) 105.45 the 100 DMA support with 107.50 the 50 DMA to clear if good.
XLF (Financials) Warning, Bullish, Warning, Bullish, Warning-forget the 50 DMA here-it’s the 200 DMA that has to hold or not
KRE (Regional Banks) I love this sector-long til I’m wrong
SMH (Semiconductors) confirmed warning phase and held the 100 DMA
IYT (Transportation) 152 support and unless it gets back over 156.34, could see that support
IBB (Biotechnology) 332.26 support with a move over 350, as farfetched as it sounds, much healthier
XRT (Retail) this would be a really good place to hold Granny-otherwise, see 92.50
IYR (Real Estate) New 2015 lows again-not part of the Economic Modern Family, but still not a healthy sign
ITB (US Home Construction) Perhaps a bottom if clears over today’ highs and holds todays lows
GLD (Gold Trust) confirmed phase change to recovery and watching the slope on that 50 DMA
USO (US Oil Fund) Possible high in place for short-term
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) I don’t know about you all, but I am so happy that this has corrected into support for a reentry.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Moved right up to the 200 DMA resistance
EWI (Italy) 14.80 huge support
CORN (Corn) Confirmed but really needs more upside to get folks interested-had big volume
BAL (Cotton) Futures look good and even better over 68.00
SGG (Sugar) Cash back over $13.00 interesting
PHO (Water) Closed green on a red day-could be departing from the overall market relationship if continues to hold 25.00
