Trade Description:
Note: Until the FED policy is clear (end of this week) swing trades are not prudent especially with the overall market in the middle of its recent range.
Open Trade Update
Existing Position: GE Long 23.86
Current Price: 23.77
Stop: 22.49 (Also might be adjusted depending upon market condition)
Target: 29.25
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Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02 (1/4 position left)
Current Price: 38.19
Stop: 35.79 (raised)
Target: Holding ¼ position longer term-no specified target yet
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Existing Position: XLF 1/4 position left from 18.38 entry
Current Price: 19.75
Stop: 18.77
First Target: Met and now have 8 ATRs
Second Target: Met at 20.00 -have ¼ position left
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Market Analysis for Trading on 6/18/2013
Welcome to pre-Federal Reserve Meeting Week! Monday’s action begins exhibiting characteristics of a split personality. On the one hand there’s the gap higher over fast moving averages with the Dow closing up 109 which suggests that Ben and the boys/girls will keep the spigot on. On the other hand, there are the long bonds, which got hit hard readying us for the possibility of higher rates. The price point on the daily charts of all 4 indexes are pretty much smack dab in the middle of the May 22nd high and June 6th low. Volume was not startling nor is the relative strength indicator neither overbought nor oversold. I suspect this up and down action will continue until something definitive (or definitively not definitive) emerges.
S&P 500 (SPY) 165.40 area to clear and under 162.91, the 50 DMA will not stop a decline should it get a 4th visit Subscribers: positive pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) 98.80 number to clear. Has room to the downside without looking too horrible for now
Dow (DIA) 152.88 number to clear and should 150.39 break, like SPY, the 50 DMA won’t mean too much
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) To break the lower highs since the peak high May6 22nd, this has to at least clear 73.76
ETFs:
GLD 135 resistance with 130 a very substantial area of support-with sentiment still bearish unless it gets back over the 50 DMA.
XLF (Financials) 19.83 (not a bad year for disco fans), is now the high last 3 days. Should mean something if clears it
IBB (Biotechnology) Unconfirmed warning phase-first time since December 2012 Subscribers: Maybe the 2013 Phases and Forecast prediction that this has topped out for now coming to fruition
SMH (Semiconductors) Still love this group-first place I’d go if the market can find its way. Subscribers: 38.50 has to clear
XRT (Retail) Inside day on the 10 DMA-interesting spot
IYT (Transportation) 111.50 needs to hold
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day and really important to the whole deal.
USO (US Oil Fund) 34.60 should be pivotal for now
OIH (Oil Services) Back to unconfirmed bullish and into some resistance
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Holding long term support but has some resistance to clear
UUP (Dollar Bull) Very oversold
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Seems the most logical thing to wait for is a clearance of the 50 DMA
