Open Trade Update

Existing Position: GE Long 23.86

Current Price: 22.93

Stop:  22.29 (at this point, prefer to use the 200 DMA since so close)

Target: 27.00 (first target for ½ off) Lowered

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Existing Position: XLF 1/4 position left from 18.38 entry

Current Price:

Stop: 18.74 STOPPED OUT

First Target: Met 
Second Target: Met at 20.00 -have ¼ position left

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Market Analysis for Trading on 6/25/2013

Here is how perverse one’s mind can be-it almost seemed like Monday’s action was positive-after all; it came back from the intraday lows, got above Friday’s lows in the Dow and other indexes, with decent volume. But then, end of day, the sellers came back with the Dow closing beneath Friday’s lows. Once again, if we have anywhere to look for a tangible silver lining, it’s in the small caps or Russell 2000s. That tested but held the May 3^rd runaway gap low plus closed above Friday’s low. But, before we call out the trumpets, it is now back in an unconfirmed warningphase. Certain instruments look better for a possible bottom in place (individual stocks, soft commodities). But looking strictly at long bonds and interest rates, although it made a new multi-year low early on and rallied from those lows, (also held a long-term weekly moving average) it has another day to really prove itself. For now, best we can say is that it worked off some oversold conditions in its current bear phase. 
Subscribers: Note the ETFs that have to clear R1 for a bounce.

S&P 500 (SPY) A move over Monday’s high might spur a rally. But, the overhead 50 DMA is now resistance.

 Russell 2000 (IWM) As mentioned, held the runaway gap low but did fill the gap from late April and is now in an unconfirmed warning phase. Like with SPY, over Monday’s high will look better, with the 50 DMA close by. As with all indexes, getting oversold

Dow (DIA) 146 giving this some support and only a move over 150 or so would be encouraging

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 68.00-69.00-these are the levels we were watching in the early part of the year.  

ETFs:  

XLF (Financials) One by one the ETFs are breaking down. 18.50 is next support level.

SMH (Semiconductors) 35.45 is the low of the runaway gap move.

XRT (Retail) Also holding the runaway gap low making 74.00 a good support area to watch

IYT (Transportation) Maybe over 108 could see a pop-otherwise, see the 200 DMA once this works off some of the current oversold conditions

IBB (Biotechnology) If Monday’s low holds, perhaps this could be one of the better places to look for a new long

IYR (Real Estate) Tried hard here but closed more in the middle of the range after making new 2013 lows. But, keeping eyes on this over 65.50 

XHB (Homebuilders) Touched the 200 DMA which means a good bounce candidate-against today’s low

GLD 115 the eventual target

USO (US Oil Fund) Bullish engulfing pattern over the 200 DMA again for an unconfirmed accumulation phase. Standing aside for now

OIH (Oil Services) Touched the 200 DMA. As with any of these ETFs, if they touched a major moving average, they need to give us a great reason to reenter besides risk-for example, a positive pivots stack and move over R1.

XLE (Energy) This like OIH, has the setup potential over R1

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) DOJI right on the 200 DMA-again R1 is key here as well.

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Tweeted along entry today on a possible new low in TLTs. Also tweeted a profit target hit with ½ the position going into tomorrow. Again, would like to see R1 clear

UUP (Dollar Bull) Got to 1.5 ATRs today from the entry last week-but, could not clear the 50 DMA and closed only slightly higher

SGG (Sugar) In SGG, 60.81 is the 50 DMA to clear. Although it seems this has bottomed, a phase change is consistent with our swing trading rules