Open Trade Update

Existing Position: GE Long 23.86

Current Price: 23.11

Stop:  22.29 (at this point, prefer to use the 200 DMA since so close)

Target: 27.00 (first target for ½ off) Lowered

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Market Analysis for Trading on 6/26/2013

Has it really come to this? The market drops 130 or so on Monday but the feeling is bullish for the next day. The next day the market rallies 100 and the feeling is back to cautious. As you might already know, I am no fan of hackneyed phrases even when they are the practical term, but “Dead Cat Bounce” sure seems apropos. The S&P 500 had a doji day (Japanese candlestick term meaning the opening and closing price is exactly or really close to the same). This infers indecision. Volume for the first time in the last 4 trading sessions was below the daily average-not encouraging on the green day. The phases in all indexes remain in warning. One positive note is that the warning phase has changed from accelerated to weak. Therefore, best case, the indexes continue to rally with the small caps (Russell 2000) leading the charge back to an unconfirmed bullish phase. Fair to middling case-the dead cat bounce continues to the 50 DMA and stops there. Worse case-one day wonder-back to the correction on Wednesday.

S&P 500 (SPY) If this holds Tuesday’s low, then a further bounce at least to the 50 DMA is likely. But, if Tuesday’s low breaks, then would anticipate more selling with the 200 DMA a magnet.Subscribers: Pivots in all indexes are positively stacked

 Russell 2000 (IWM) 96.10 is the 50 DMA to clear and clear sooner rather than later or Tuesday’s low becomes vulnerable.

Dow (DIA) 146 giving this some support and only a move over 150 or so would be encouraging

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Would consider 70.00 pivotal here-like it above, not so much below, with support levels on the way down-69.00, 68.00-especially 68.00 where the 200 DMA lives  

ETFs:  

XLF (Financials) For Wednesday 19.27 is the 50 DMA to clear to keep this positive. For the month, a close over 19.20 is key

SMH (Semiconductors) 37.60 is important on a lot of levels-it keeps the recent channel breakout on the monthly charts intact and it crossed the 50 DMA. So, if this cannot get and stay there-like the whole market, vulnerable

XRT (Retail) The first number to watch to clear is 75.70-the 50 DMA. Otherwise, joins the rest in looking like more downside in the cards

IYT (Transportation) Here, 108 is the important pivotal number. Then 112 on the upside and 102 on the downside

IBB (Biotechnology) Under Tuesday’s low, vulnerable as well.

IYR (Real Estate) This has to clear the 200 DMA again or under 63.00, 60.00 is next 

XHB (Homebuilders) Under 28.00 next time, see 26.00. Otherwise, this has to clear 29.50

GLD 115 the eventual target

USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed accumulation phase. Small long miniswing position against the 50 and 200 DMAs-which means has to hold 33.49

OIH (Oil Services) Until this closes a month out over 43.80, not really all that interesting to me

XLE (Energy)

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Under the 200 DMA could see 55.00. A weekly close over 59.00 much more encouraging

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Stopped out no loss stop on balance of the TLT long from Tuesday. The primary trend in the TBTs is up with today an inside day.

UUP (Dollar Bull) Could not clear the 50 DMA but getting close.

SGG (Sugar) The futures cleared the 50 DMA but not this. We bought ½ position until it does.