Open Trade Update

Existing Position: GE Long 23.86

Current Price: 23.25

Stop:  22.29 (at this point, prefer to use the 200 DMA since so close)

Target: 27.00 (first target for ½ off) Lowered

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Open Trade Update

Existing Position: SGG Long 60.90 (1/2)

Current Price: 60.49

Stop:  58.97

Target: On confirmation of recovery phase will add and look for 62.00 first target to take some profit

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Market Analysis for Trading on 6/27/2013

In spite of the fact that all the indexes remain in warning phases, even the small caps (Russell 2000), at least got closer to the 50 DMA after the poorer than expected GDP. Since so much of the market is perception and psychology, with the GDP numbers, the market reacted to what the FEDhas already said-no easing if the economy doesn’t continue to improve. So, the economy shows slower than expected growth and everyone gets happy. Did I use the word “perverse” this week? Anyway, not sure about this perception since the dollar rose again and rates improved but certainly not to euphoric proportions. Gold certainly is the new scourge of the markets. Social media the new darlings-especially Pandora and Yelp. Retail and Financial sectors went back to unconfirmed bullish phases-a positive. But the market, even after today, is far from the peak high in May. It needs a whole lot more bad news to be good.

S&P 500 (SPY) Under today’s low, would look like 3 days up to resistance, then breakdown again. Otherwise, the 50 DMA is still there for the taking Subscribers: 3 days up and possible we could see the 50 DMA. Equally possible this could be a white cap in the making if breaks S1.

 Russell 2000 (IWM) Tried so very hard, but failed to close above the 50 DMA. Tuesday I wrote it better happen sooner rather than later. Like tomorrow or else

Dow (DIA) A move over 150 or so would be encouraging

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Would consider 70.00 pivotal here-like it above, not so much below.

ETFs:  

XLF (Financials) Unconfirmed bullish phase and looking out, for the month, a close over 19.20 is key

SMH (Semiconductors) 37.60 is important on a lot of levels-it keeps the recent channel breakout on the monthly charts intact and it crossed the 50 DMA. So, if this cannot get and stay there, vulnerable

XRT (Retail) Unconfirmed bullish phase making today’s low real important

IYT (Transportation) 108.20-108.65 an area to hold. And of course, the 50 DMA is the area to clear

IBB (Biotechnology) Like everything, good day but needs more

IYR (Real Estate) Here is where I would look for a short if the market comes off-been weak, still weak.

XHB (Homebuilders) Under 28.00 next time, see 26.00. Otherwise, this has to clear 29.50

GLD 115 the eventual target

USO (US Oil Fund) My first instinct this week was to stand aside-I didn’t listen to myself as the phases are changing rapidly around these converging moving averages. Now, I know that once the moving averages separate from one another, the next move will be way more obvious.

OIH (Oil Services) Until this closes a month out over 43.80, not really all that interesting to me.

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Under the 200 DMA could see 55.00. A weekly close over 59.00 much more encouraging

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Fresh look for a buy opportunity against 74.00 risk

UUP (Dollar Bull) Cleared the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed bullish phase

SGG (Sugar) The futures cleared the 50 DMA but not this. We bought ½ position until it does.