Open Trade Update

Existing Position: GE Long 23.86

Current Price: 23.32

Stop:  22.29 (at this point, prefer to use the 200 DMA since so close)

Target: 27.00 (first target for ½ off) Lowered

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Open Trade Update

Existing Position: SGG Long 60.90 (1/2)

Current Price: 59.60

Stop:  58.89 (Slightly lowered)

Target: On confirmation of recovery phase will add and look for 62.00 first target to take some profit

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Market Analysis for Trading on 6/28/2013

4 gaps higher on the indexes this week and although trading the system consistently, my overriding question continues to be “When does the other shoe drop?” I see a strong US Dollar (bullish phase in fact), rates dropping some from their recent highs, 3 out of 4 indexes in a weak warning phase (our friend the small caps-Russell 2000 went into an unconfirmed bullish phase), most important sectors also in warning except for retail and financials-yes important but can be lonely at the top), and, last but not least-a seed change at the Federal Reserve with new candidates lining up for Ben’s job. Tomorrow is Friday-that I am sure of!

S&P 500 (SPY) Hammer doji. Close under the 10 and 50 DMAs-whether you’re wearing Jimmy Choos or Crox, if this cannot get over those moving averages, prepare for bare feet. Subscribers: 4 days up and possible we could see the 50 DMA. Equally possible this could be a white cap in the making if breaks S1.

 Russell 2000 (IWM) Got the phase change, albeit unconfirmed. Now, we need to fill the gap to 98.16 and close above, or this love affair is short-lived

 Dow (DIA) Soooo close but not quite over that 150 that would give encouragement

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Sort of looks like SPY, only weaker. Under today’s low, trouble

ETFs:  

XLF (Financials) Confirmed bullish phase and a monthly close over 19.20 is key

SMH (Semiconductors) 37.60 is important on a lot of levels-it keeps the recent channel breakout on the monthly charts intact and it crossed the 50 DMA. So, if this cannot get and stay there, vulnerable

XRT (Retail) Confirmed bullish phase making today’s low real important

IYT (Transportation) 108.20-108.65 an area to hold. And of course, the 50 DMA is the area to clear

IBB (Biotechnology) Like everything, good day but needs more

IYR (Real Estate) The day this bottomed, the volume was strong-a mirror to the day it topped out. However, the phase remains weak and the 200 DMA a barrier to cross. Otherwise, good place to go for shorts if market turns.

XHB (Homebuilders) Popped right up to the 10 DMA.

GLD Landed on the 80 monthly.  I almost cannot believe it. Now, 2 big days of 2-3 times the average daily volume. Could be a blow off in the works.

USO (US Oil Fund) 34.63 is the low of the island top-if that clears and holds, perhaps this bull run is really for real

OIH (Oil Services) Until this closes a month out over 43.80, not really all that interesting to me

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day and closed red-aside here for now

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 2 day fairly significant correction, but over today’s high, could resurrect.

UUP (Dollar Bull) Confirmed bullish phase. Should hold the 50 DMA now

SGG (Sugar) Stop lowered just a bit to 58.89 on our ½ position