Note: Today could have been a key reversal day in the market. If I see a good risk/reward position swing trade set up, will email/text tomorrow. Thanks.
Open Trade Update
Existing Position: OIH long ½ Position
Current Price: 43.42
Stop: 42.67 (Balance) (Low today 42.75-great stop!)
Target: 50.00-53.00
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Existing Position: SMH Long 35.02 (1/4 position left)
Current Price: 37.95
Stop: 35.39 (lowered)
Target: Holding ¼ position longer term-no specified target yet
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Existing Position: XLF 1/4 position left from 18.38 entry
Current Price: 19.64
Stop: 18.77
First Target: Met and now have 8 ATRs
Second Target: Met at 20.00 -have ¼ position left
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About those reversal patterns. One key indication is when a new 60 day plus low is made (even more powerful when the low is on or near a major simple moving average), then it (depending upon which instrument) closes in the top 25% of its intraday range. As with every one of our indicators, confirmation is key. Only one group has this pattern (Real Estate). The key indexes can boast holding the nearby moving averages and closing above Wednesday’s lows. Therefore, “Put on a Happy Face” as we head into the US Employment Numbers, flushed with cash and ready to party or equally ready to be grateful for the discipline to await confirmation!
S&P 500 (SPY) Held the 50 DMA with what I read someone call the “too obvious” bounce. However, a darn good start as we head to the end of the week. 164-165 is the overhead resistance to clear Subscribers: Neutral Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held the 96.50 level I wrote about and now, has to clear 98.00 next resistance Subscribers: Positive Pivots
Dow (DIA) Held the 50 DMA with 151-152 the area to clear Subscribers: Negative Pivots
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Held the runaway gap and now has to clear 73.00. Like all the indexes and previous comments above, another day of confirmation that the correction is over is super necessary before we get too excited Subscribers: Negative Pivots
ETFs:
GLD Touched the 137 resistance after holding the 134 support. I rather wait for the short then call for the bottom-but for now, happy on the sidelines
XLF (Financials) Back in the box (at the risk of overusing a term). More importantly proved that 19.50 is indeed pivotal. Now, 19.78 next hurdle
IBB (Biotechnology) Second indication of a reversal is when we go to a one day unconfirmed phase change, only to go back to a better but equally unconfirmed phase change the next day.
SMH (Semiconductors) Underperformed, but holding the May lows so far. Subscribers: And holding that channel on the monthly you should have etched in your brains by now!
XRT (Retail) Impressive close at the end of day as it also never really broke as hard as the other groups making this a great place to look at tomorrow over 78.00
IYT (Transportation) Subscribers: As shown in today’s video, with the weak warning phase and an upward slope in the 50 DMA, a cross above, 111, is a good reason to think worst is over
IYR (Real Estate) Classic reversal pattern looking for the confirmation Subscribers: Second day confirmation over today’s high needed
USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation. Subscribers: Waiting for a confirmation
OIH (Oil Services) Subscribers: Held the 50 DMA (and one heck of a stop for the position traders today)
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Broke then came back through 66.00. Very interested to see what happens here tomorrow
XHB (Homebuilders) Subscribers: As shown in today’s video, with the weak warning phase and an upward slope in the 50 DMA, a cross above, 30.40, is a good reason to think worst is over
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Futures over 16.70 puts this back in the channel