Open Trade Update:
Long: EWG 24.70 (3/4 position)
Current Price: 25.64
Stop: 24.39
Target: Took ¼ off 25.40
Next target: Take off 1/2 26.00
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Existing Position: GE Long 23.86
Current Price: 23.76
Stop: 22.94
Target: 27.00 (first target for ½ off)
Note: Earnings July 19th-will let you all know if we decide to exit before the earnings report
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Exiting Position: GLD Long 119.35 (1/2 position)
Stop: Break Even 119.35
Current Price: 124.12
First Target: Sold ½ 123.89
Next Target: 130 Sell ¼ remaining position
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Market Analysis for Trading on 7/15/2013
Tell your children to train for jobs in Biotechnology, if appropriate, since that seems to be the place to be for innovation and long positions. IBB, the ETF for that sector closed up 2.46%. Otherwise, Friday was a healthy digestion in the indexes. Looking at other signs, in spite of theFed meeting last week, rates firmed a bit as did the US dollar while transportation and real estate, although up for the week, closed lower on Friday. Semiconductors made new 2013 highs intraday, closing just shy of that number. The Fed will have to taper eventually and perhaps the market continues to be absorbing that logical conclusion. Gold held onto its gains as well. All in all, a very profitable week with some delicious setups for this upcoming week.
S&P 500 (SPY) 169.07 the May 22nd high next critical place to clear. With the gap last Thursday, that low has to hold for now
Russell 2000 (IWM) Not sure I would call that “healthy digestion” but certainly see no reasons for concern at this point unless the gap low from Thursday is violated
Dow (DIA) IBM has been having issues and that is a substantial component of this index. Although it managed to shake that off for most of the week, by Friday, it closed red and with a bearish engulfing pattern against the 2013 highs. At this point, has to take out those 2013 highs or seems a bit vulnerable especially under 153.70
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Pretty and into some resistance on the weekly and monthly Bollinger bands.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) After great earnings from JP Morgan and Wells Fargo-not to mention the “Born in the USA” speech by Jamie Dimon on the financial news stations, this took out the old 2013 high 20.35 by one tick and then closed just on it. Either has to keep going from here or a gap down could mean some trouble.
SMH (Semiconductors) 2013 highs-can we continue to fly?
XRT (Retail) A small rest
IYT (Transportation) Lagging-a sign of pending weakness, or just needs to play some catch up?
IBB (Biotechnology) What is the word for more than darling? Only word of caution-double the average volume which could mean blow off rally. Needs confirmation of course
IYR (Real Estate) 67.40 the 200 DMA and key support to hold
XHB (Homebuilders) Confirmed the phase change to bullish
GLD I believe we got ourselves an island bottom!
USO (US Oil Fund) Took out the 200 weekly moving average, first time since September 2012
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day but has to clear 45.50 last Thursday’s high.
XLE (Energy) Looks much better after Friday’s strong close, especially over 82.00
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day. Like this better if can clear 61.82
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Held the daily chart support and fast moving average. 76 has been pivotal.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subscribers: Held the 50 DMA with an inside day therefore still in a bullish phase. Looking for re entry.
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Inside day and right close to the 50 DMA
