Open Trade Update:
Long: EWG 24.70 (3/4 position)
Current Price: 25.73
Stop: 24.70 (Raised to no loss stop)
Target: Took ¼ off 25.40
Next target: Take off 1/2 26.00
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Existing Position: GE Long 23.86
Current Price: 23.63
Stop: 23.24 (raised ahead of earnings)
Target: 27.00 (first target for ½ off)
Note: Earnings July 19th-will let you all know if we decide to exit before the earnings report
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Exiting Position: GLD Long 119.35 (1/2 position)
Stop: Break Even 119.97 (raised)
Current Price: 124.16
First Target: Sold ½ 123.89
Next Target: 130 Sell ¼ remaining position
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Market Analysis for Trading on 7/16/2013
By all accounts a good digestion day. Financials continued to shine on the heels of strong earnings in that sector. Retail made new highs once again and transportation made up for some its lag from last week. Rates dropped, the dollar was unchanged and biotechnology took a breather. The big news for the next session is the inside day setup (when the range of the day is inside the range of the day prior). That often indicates a pause or some hesitation in the particular instrument that sets up with the inside day. It also often provides great low risk opportunities to follow the way the range breaks the following day.
S&P 500 (SPY) 169.07 the May 22nd high next critical place to clear. With the gap last Thursday, that low has to hold for now
Russell 2000 (IWM) See no reasons for concern at this point unless the gap low from Thursday is violated
Dow (DIA) 155.54 the May 22nd high to clear with last Thursday’s gap low the point to hold
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Other than some short-term high relative strength indicators, looks pretty good here
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) New 2013 highs making 20.35 a pivotal area and 20.70 next point of resistance.
SMH (Semiconductors) Lovely pause at the 2013 highs which I would not hesitate to follow up
XRT (Retail) Rested Friday, made new highs today
IYT (Transportation) Still not close to the 2013 highs, but over 115.33 clears recent congestion with 113 support
IBB (Biotechnology) after the huge run last Friday on double the average volume, today it made new highs and closed slightly lower. Still on watch for a reversal but that’s more to be ready for anything
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day. 67.40 the 200 DMA and key support to hold. Like over 69.00
XHB (Homebuilders) Has to hold the 50 DMA or could see drop to the gap from 30.00
GLD As long as 122.35 holds, an island bottom remains. Quiet session
USO (US Oil Fund) High oil prices are not want anyone wants to see, but technically, this made new 2013 highs
OIH (Oil Services) Has to clear 45.50 last Thursday’s high. Subscribers: A dip near 43.90 would be into the monthly moving average support
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Weak close missing a second inside day by a tick. Like this better if can clear 61.82 Subscribers: Needs a monthly close over 61.00
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day. Held the daily chart support and fast moving average. 76 has been pivotal.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subscribers: 22.55 a good point to clear for reentry long
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: close to pushing up over the 50 DMA
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Possible 2-day brick wall bottom pattern with max risk under Friday low
