New Trade:
Buy: JCP 17.86 Buy Stop
Canceled
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Open Trade Update:
Long: EWG 24.70 (3/4 position)
Current Price: 25.81
Stop: 24.70 (Raised to no loss stop)
Target: Took ¼ off 25.40
Next target: Take off 1/2 26.00
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Existing Position: GE Long 23.86
Current Price: 23.43
Stop: 23.24 (raised ahead of earnings)
Target: 27.00 (first target for ½ off)
Note: Earnings July 19th-will let you all know if we decide to exit before the earnings report
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Exiting Position: GLD Long 119.35 (1/2 position)
Stop: Break Even 119.97 (raised)
Current Price: 124.89
First Target: Sold ½ 123.89
Next Target: 130 Sell ¼ remaining position
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Market Analysis for Trading on 7/17/2013
In Monday night’s daily, I wrote about Biotechnology and how we were on watch for the possibility of a key reversal day after Friday’s double the average blow off rally. Tuesday, a classic second indication of possible reversal in play occurred once again in the Biotechnology ETFs. It opened on new all-time highs and closed on the intraday lows as well as below Monday’s low of the day price. In the Russell 2000s, there was a similar scenario setup only with a couple of differences. IWM matched but did not take out the all-time high made Monday right on the Tuesday’s open and then closed on the intraday lows, but not below Monday’s low. The S&P 500 hasn’t traded near enough to the May 22nd high, leaving that top in place. Therefore, Wednesday’s action should prove to be more decisive for next short-term direction. No doubt the market remains in a bull phase. As with all technical indicators, we will look for the necessary confirmation.
S&P 500 (SPY) 169.07 the May 22nd high is critical to clear or that topping action remains intact with Tuesday’s action reasons to think this can go back to around 165 fairly quickly.
Russell 2000 (IWM) I’ll give this a bit more leeway after today’s possible reversal-Thursday’s gap low 102.59. If that breaks, expect 100 pretty quickly. Then we’ll take another pulse.
Dow (DIA) 155.54 the May 22nd high looms above with last Thursday’s low 153.71 close.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) This made a new all-time high but did not close on the intraday lows. So, not great, but not nearly as ominous unless it gaps open lower or takes out today’s low and remains weak Wednesday
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Held 20.35 a pivotal number as the old 2013 high-so for now, more like digestion than reversal if I had to take a guess.
SMH (Semiconductors) Semiconductors on the other hand, made a new 2013 high making 39.29 the new pivotal number to hold.
XRT (Retail) This too has a possible reversal candle now that it made a new all-time high and closed within 25% of the intraday low
IYT (Transportation) Left a bearish engulfing pattern in a group that was not close to matching the 2013 high from May
IBB (Biotechnology) As per above, tomorrow should be decisive one way or another for the short-term anyway
IYR (Real Estate) Floating, literally-last 4 trading days- above the 200 and below the 50 DMA
XHB (Homebuilders) Broke the 50 DMA (unconfirmed warning phase) so could see that drop to the gap from 30.00
GLD As long as 122.35 holds, an island bottom remains. Now, over 125, could see more upside
USO (US Oil Fund) Yet another possible reversal day-new highs, close on the lows
OIH (Oil Services) Subscribers: A dip near 43.90 area would be into the monthly moving average support
XLE (Energy) Tested the 50 DMA today
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subscribers: Needs a monthly close over 61.00
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subscribers: Let’s follow the Category 2 rules-has to clear pivots and R1
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: pushing up into the 50 DMA-a good place to clear for phase change
