Open Trade Update:
Long: EWG 24.70 (3/4 position)
Current Price: 25.88
Stop: 24.70 (Raised to no loss stop)
Target: Took ¼ off 25.40
Next target: Take off 1/2 26.00
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Existing Position: GE Long 23.86
Current Price: 23.54
Stop: 23.24 (raised ahead of earnings)
Target: 27.00 (first target for ½ off)
Note: Earnings July 19th-BEFORE open –so will exit tomorrow and look fresh after earnings-look for email and text Thursday
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Exiting Position: GLD Long 119.35 (1/2 position)
Stop: Break Even 119.97 (raised)
Current Price: 123.32
First Target: Sold ½ 123.89
Next Target: 130 Sell ¼ remaining position
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Market Analysis for Trading on 7/18/2013
Regarding the search for confirmation on whether or not Tuesday yielded any reversal patterns-keep searching. As choppy as the market was before, during and after Ben Bernanke’s testimony, ultimately, the day closed green and none of the indexes gave an absolute signal (which most likely means more upside considering we can revert back to the overall phase when in doubt.) I would keep big eyes particularly on the Dow (DIA) since 155.54 the May 22nd high looms, but if clears should yield another good leg up with the recent lows as the risk point.
S&P 500 (SPY) 169.07 the May 22nd high is critical to here as well. I would also watch Wednesday’s low to hold as key support.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Another new high and not so spectacular but certainly not that worrisome either close.
Dow (DIA) In addition to comments above, Wednesday low important to hold in the “be ready for anything” scenario
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) New multi-year high closing price.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) 20.35-20.50 the new range to watch for next move up or down
SMH (Semiconductors) Made new highs intraday. With INTC down in the post market, will watch for a reversal, but overall, still long-term friendly
XRT (Retail) After the possible reversal candle on Tuesday, Wednesday followed with an inside day making this a very important piece of the puzzle. Watch range break.
IYT (Transportation) Left a bearish engulfing pattern Tuesday and an inside day Wednesday. Again, critical range to watch
IBB (Biotechnology) Wednesday not so decisive one way or another for the short-term due to the inside day. Therefore, still have the possibility of a key reversal
IYR (Real Estate) Floating, literally-last 5 trading days- above the 200 and below the 50 DMASubscribers: Will look for a setup on that range break for swing
XHB (Homebuilders) Confirmed warning phase making this vulnerable under 30.00.
GLD As long as 122.35 holds, an island bottom remains.
USO (US Oil Fund) New highs-why we always wait for confirmation on possible reversal signals
OIH (Oil Services) Subscribers: Inside day
XLE (Energy) Tested the 50 DMA and had an inside day
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subscribers: Needs a monthly close over 61.00 and for now at least a move over 62.00
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subscribers: Let’s follow the Category 2 rules-has to clear pivots and R1
UUP (Dollar Bull) Over 22.47 would take another shot long with risk to the 200 DMA
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Cleared the 50 DMA making today’s low the new risk point
SGG (Sugar) 56.47 a good point to watch for clearance. Inside day
Bye for Now!
