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Open Trade Update:
Stopped out: Existing Position Long: IYR 69.47
Name of Instrument: iShares US R/E ETF
Stop Loss 67.49
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Existing Position: Long EWG 24.70 (1/4 position)
Current Price: 26.24
Stop: 25.77 (raised)
Next target: With ¼ of the position left, will use a trailing stop
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Existing Position: GLD Long 119.35 (1/4 position)
Stop: 124.94
Current Price: 128.30
Next Target: With ¼ of the position left, will use a trailing stop
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Market Analysis for Trading on 7/30/2013
I’m not so sure I would let a low volume, only slightly down session lull you if you are a committed bull into complacency after Monday’s session as there was some substantial deterioration if you look under the hood. First, examining the small caps (Russell 2000), which I wrote about after aninside day(when the range of the day is within the range of the day prior) to end last week as the best place to determine the tone was down .64% compared to the best performer, NASDAQ, which even with a healthy AAPL performance, still closed down .13%. Then, there are 2 significant phase changes for the worse-semiconductors, which confirmed a warning phase and real estate which went into an unconfirmed distribution phase. Rates climbed which appears to be saying the market is readying itself for the FED, who meet Wednesday, as no longer able or willing to keep the juice flowing. Now, keeping a balanced perspective, retail closed down marginally, which could mean the consumer confidence will prevent more deterioration or John Q. Public is late to the buying party.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day with Friday’s low 167.52 a key point to hold, with equal weight on a move back above 169 for the reverse case. Subscribers: 5 days negative pivots so has to clear R1 which would be a good signal
Russell 2000 (IWM) 101.94 is the gap low from 7/11 as the best support area with a move over today’s high encouraging. For now, the topping action of last week is in place Subscribers: Pivots negative
Dow (DIA) Inside day. 155.74 ultimate price to clear and like to see it hold Friday’s lowSubscribers: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Still needs to clear 75.74 to be clear of the topping action from 2 weeks ago. Subscribers: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) 20.35 is the old 2013 high from the May 22nd top and now the support to hold
SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed warning phase, with a monthly close at or over 37.50 important if this group is to stay at the higher 2013 levels
XRT (Retail) Best chance to take leadership especially over81.55
IYT (Transportation) Holding the 50 DMA but had damage today as one of the works performers of the major sectors and groups
IBB (Biotechnology) Holding the fast moving average but 196.97 has to clear now for this to resume momentum
IYR (Real Estate) After 3 lows last week at 67.53, it took that level out by just a couple of ticks, but more importantly went into an unconfirmed distribution phase, breaking the 200 DMA
XHB (Homebuilders) Unless this gets back above 30.00, looks like it too can visit the 200 DMA
GLD Inside day in the improved recovery phase Subscribers: Looks better over Friday’s high stop below the 50 DMA
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day. 36.88 gap low to defend or more downside
OIH (Oil Services) Subscribers: Got a few days left of the month to see if this closes above or below the 80 monthly moving average
XLE (Energy) 84.00 big number
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Showing signs of higher rates in the cards Subscribers: Kept 1/4 position for swing
EWG (Germany) Inside day and holding the 50 DMA
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: I guess saying I was almost 100% certain this had bottomed was correct. Now, unconfirmed phase change to recovery. Look for a dip to 58.32 the 50 DMA
Bye for Now!
