New Trade Alert: Buy USG 25.76 buy stop
Instrument Name: USG Corp
Stop Loss: 23.69
First Target: 29.00
Reason for Trade: If closes at the buy level will clear the 50 DMA for a phase change to recovery and look like a bottoming formation for a longer term move higher. Plus, in November 2012 it crossed the 80 monthly moving average, first time since 2008.
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Existing Position: Long EWG 24.70 (1/4 position)
Current Price: 26.22
Stop: 25.77
Next target: With ¼ of the position left, will use a trailing stop
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Existing Position: GLD Long 119.35 (1/4 position)
Stop: 124.94
Current Price: 128.09
Next Target: With ¼ of the position left, will use a trailing stop
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Market Analysis for Trading on 7/31/2013
Although there is lots of super important data about to come out this week-the second-quarter GDP, results of the Federal Reserve’s 2-day policy meeting, jobless claims in the private sector, more earnings reports, etc., I once again retreat to the technical bubble. Market is mixed, choppy and lying in wait for some definitive direction. The small caps (Russell 2000s) remain a concern, ending under the fast moving average, with an inside day. S&P 500 can really go either way; the Dow as well. NASDAQ had a new high close although did not close on new 2013 intraday highs. Say that 10 times fast! Most sectors were not as strong other thanbiotechnology (no surprise) and semiconductors (pleasant surprise). Oil dropped sharply while the financials, real estate and transportation sectors did nothing to ameliorate the topping candles from last week. What does the technical bubble look like? Not a place to be heavily long or short right now.
S&P 500 (SPY) Subscribers: pivots positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) inside day. Once again, an important range break to follow Subscribers:Pivots negative
Dow (DIA) 155.74 ultimate price to clear Subscribers: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Subscribers: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) 20.35 is the old 2013 high from the May 22nd top and now the support to hold
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed bullish phase. Subscribers: Need a second day of confirmation on that and as tomorrow is last day of the month-the close over 37.50
XRT (Retail) Made new highs but did not close on them. Worth watching for sure
IYT (Transportation) Inside day above the 50 DMA which is declining in slope
IBB (Biotechnology) A monster!
IYR (Real Estate) Confirmed the distribution phase-definitely looking to the Fed now
XHB (Homebuilders) Unless this gets back above 30.00, looks like it too can visit the 200 DMA
GLD Back to unconfirmed bear phase
USO (US Oil Fund) Textbook example of what topping candles can do
OIH (Oil Services) Subscribers: Tomorrow we should see if this can close out the month above or below 43.80 or the 80 monthly moving average
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subscribers: Will like this over 62.20 especially since it will close the month well over 60.00
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Showing signs of higher rates in the cardsSubscribers: Kept 1/4 position for swing
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subscribers: 22.19 is the 200 DMA watching
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Confirmed recovery phase inside day. Waiting for a dip closer to 58 to buy
Bye for Now!
