Existing Position: Long UUP $22.12
Current Price: 21.98
Stop: 21.79 stop
First Target: 23.00 take ½-1/3
Reason For trade: Has bounced off major support levels and underlying index has crossed over 200 DMA
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Existing Position: Long EWG 24.70 (1/4 position)
Current Price: 26.77
Stop: 25.77
Next target: With ¼ of the position left, will use a trailing stop
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Existing Position: Long TXN 39.18
Current Price: 38.74
Stop: 37.09
First Target: 42.91 Take 1/4 - 1/3
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Existing Position: Long SGG 58.65
Current Price: 59.12
Stop: 56.79
First Target: 61.60 Take 1/4 -1/3
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Market Analysis For Trading on 8/19/2013
It finally happened. On Friday we witnessed the long awaited test of the 50 day moving average. The S&P 500 dipped below the 50 DMA early in the afternoon, but was able to finish the day closing above it. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains under the 50 DMA, confirming its warning phase. But, it is getting very oversold. With the other indexes holding support, I am expecting DIA to begin to climb back. It may still drop lower but, most likely not below 149.00. The Russell 2000s are holding support. Most interestingly, Nasdaq has an inside day. Watch how the range breaks here as an indicator of the next short term direction in the indexes. TBT closed on new 2013 highs. GLD climbed slightly higher and paused with a doji day. I am focusing on finding stocks that are holding support on moving averages.
S&P 500 (SPY) Dipped below the 50 DMA but closed above Subscribers: Pivots negative.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Holding the gap up from 7/10. If 101.38 breaks, expect a yest of the 50 DMA. Subscribers: Pivots negative.
Dow (DIA) Dropped lower and closed on support from the 7/1 high. Watch for this level to hold. Subscribers: Pivots negative.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside day. Watch how the range breaks. Subscribers: Pivots slightly negative.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Confirmed its warning phase and had a doji day on Friday.
SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed its warning phase but is holding support. Watch for 37.34 to hold.
XRT (Retail) Closed below the 50 DMA, bringing this into an unconfirmed warning phase.
IYT (Transportation) Closed over the 50 DMA. Now in an unconfirmed bull phase. Watch for the 50 DMA to hold.
IBB (Biotechnology) Holding the upward sloping 50 DMA and the gap from 7/11.
IYR (Real Estate) Broke the June lows and is now very oversold.
XHB (Homebuilders) Watch for the 200 DMA to hold.
GLD Doji day and digesting the move from Thursday.
USO (US Oil Fund) Grinding higher. 38.62 is resistance.
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day, under the downward sloping 10 DMA.
XLE (Energy) Gapped lower this morning but, holding the 50 DMA.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day, holding the upward sloping 50 DMA. Oversold and has the potential for a big move up.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Closed at new yearly highs and is now at overbought levels.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Watch for 21.86 to hold.
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Holding the 10 DMA.
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Tested and held the 10 DMA.
Bye for Now!
