Market Analysis for Trading on 9/6/2013

Mish Schneider | September 6, 2013

Existing Position

Long: IYR 62.15

Current Price: 61.63

Stop Loss: 60.84

First Target: 64.85

Reason For trade: Slingshot low made on August 19th with the longer term charts (weekly, monthly) still intact. Good 1.5 ATR risk 3 ATR reward if works

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Existing Position: Long OIH $45.47

Current Price: 46.44

Stop: 45.47 once filled on profit target otherwise, 44.84

First Target: 46.65 take ½ (lowered target)

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Existing Position: Long UUP $22.12

Current Price: 22.33

Stop: 21.97 (raised)

First Target: 23.00 take ½-1/3

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Existing Position: Long TXN $39.18

Current Price: 39.46

Stop: 37.94 (Raised)

First Target: 42.91 Take 1/4 - 1/3

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Low volume digestion day with the Jewish New Year and ahead of all the potential storms-Syria, the Fed, Jobs reportNasdaq remains the solo index in a bullish phase, but with the inclining slope of the 50 DMA in the others, and with price so very close to penetrating the 50 DMA especially in the small caps, which would be awesome, seems the direction market wants is higher! All indices formed an inverted Hammer Candlestick formation. Inverted Hammer:Represents a potential trend reversal or support levels. Needs confirmation with either a gap higher or good up day move with volume. What to watch for. 
Real estate remains a concern while semiconductors confirmed a bullish phase. Lots of variables at play, so regardless of up or down from here-it should be big either way.

S&P 500 (SPY) Really can make a case here for up or down-sitting under the 50 DMA. Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indices.

Russell 2000 (IWM) If breaks Thursday low we can probably make a better case for more downside all around. However, 102.50 is a great place to see clear for a strong finish the last quarter of the year.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Inches from 2013 high-so again, a failure could be ugly but a break above-sweet!

ETFs:  

XLF (Financials) Came one tick from filling the gap from August 26th low. That could be also telling. Above 19.93 better case for resume really.

SMH (Semiconductors) 37.50 a good point to hold but the 50 DMA would be even betterSubscribers: Long ½ and using the 50 DMA to calculate risk

XRT (Retail) Like to see this over 80.00 as it too is flirting with the 50 DMA

IYT (Transportation) If you examine this daily chart, it had 2 great runs this summer both up then down. Now, it’s slogging along in the middle of the summer range

IBB (Biotechnology) New highs doji day

IYR (Real Estate) 2 inside days. The plot thickens Subscribers: 2 inside days so big eyes again tomorrow

XHB (Homebuilders) Inside day so also ready to become more decisive for next move

GLD 130 key support or could get nasty here again 

OIH (Oil Services) Got super close to 2013 highs Subscribers: Took 1/3 off and now no loss stop

XLE (Energy) Subscribers: Ultimately, this move doesn’t mean all that much until it clears 84.00

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) SubscribersWill watch for an opening range reversal

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Has been in an uptrend against an inclining 50 DMA since mid-May. Just saying.

UUP (Dollar Bull) Strong dollar with unconfirmed phase change to bullish

EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Inside day. Watch the 50 DMA for possible reentry or over 26.00

FXI (China) Over the 200 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change to accumulation 

SGG (Sugar) Subscribers:  Really close again to the 50 DMA-I will try this again if it sets up

Bye for Now!