Open Trade Update
Trade: Buy SMH Buy stop at 35.80 up to 36.00 limit
Instrument Name: SMH Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF
Position: Long
Stop: 34.99
Target: 37.50-37.80 take partial profit
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Open Trade Update
Trade: XLF
Instrument Name: S&P Financial Spdr Fund
Existing Position: 17.96 Long
New Stop: 17.79
First Target: 18.75 (take off 1/3 or so) Note: Some of you might have taken some profit at 18.37 or 1.5 ATRs from our original entry.
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Analysis for Wednesday, 3/13/13
After the warning on the small caps yesterday, for a while on Tuesday it seemed like the market was in for a big correction. But, keeping with the Russell 2000, it closed down marginally but with a doji day which means lots of investors are holding their breath. Money rotated into some commodities today as rates dropped. Although good to follow the money, stepping back, the scenario does look more likely for rates to firm more. But, it would be advisable to see how this plays out before jumping back into short bonds.
S&P 500 (SPY) 154 the support area with the 2007 high still in gear 157.52 Subs: Pivots Negative
Russell 2000 (IWM) 92.68 was the brick wall high that cleared last week. That is first area of support with 93.75 the wall to cross. Subs: Took home TWM as a hedge but if IWM crosses and holds over 93.75 that will be short-lived.
Dow (DIA) Held up the best, closed green and is really overbought. Subs: Pivots here are still positive so watch S1.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) AAPL was a one day wonder therefore NASDAQ traded in its new sideways range 69.00 high to 68.00 low
GLD 153.50 is the support to watch for a hold or break with 156 next resistance
XLF (Financials) Inside day. Subs: Using the 10 DMA now for our trailing stop in the swing based on a closing basis
IBB (Biotechnology) This group not only surprised me once; it continues to do so
SMH (Semiconductors) Now it's all about 36.00 Subs: The longer it holds 35.00, the better
XRT (Retail) Taking a sideways rest
IYT (Transportation) Through 110, who can argue?
IYR (Real Estate) Tested and held the fast moving average. Above today's high would be a good sign and below today's low more reasons for concern.
USO (US Oil Fund) Gapped higher but failed to close above the 200 DMA Subs: No phase change making today's low important if holds or not
OIH (Oil Services) Mainly I see a sloppy chart Subs: We are back to watching the 80 monthly moving average
XLE (Energy) Has to clear the top in place form early February.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) A move down to 67.00 would be a very tempting area to buy. Subs: This could have been the 2 day correction. If so, would use 68.00 as a risk and look for a buy opportunity over the pivots
XHB (Homebuilders) Closed under 29.52 the February high. If holds 29.00 and crossed back above the old high, good sign
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subs: I am thinking that this little correction from the 200 weekly moving average could be over with a stronger dollar to come-evidence would be a move over 22.53 R1
EWI (MSCI Italy Cap Index) Subs: Getting bored with this trade-stop most likely under S2 tomorrow
Bye for Now!
