Open Trade Update
Trade: SMH 35.80 Long
New Stop: 34.99
First Target: 37.50-37.80 take partial profit
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Open Trade Update
Trade: XLF 17.96 Long
New Stop: 17.79
First Target: 18.75 (take off 1/3 or so) Note: Some of you might have taken some profit at 18.37 or 1.5 ATRs from our original entry.
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Analysis for Thursday, 3/14/13
I am not sure who is more tired-at the highs-but tired: the market or me. When a runner hits the wall during a marathon, the choice is to stop or keep going, but at a really slow pace. The Dow (DIA) has rallied 9 days in a row, (longest winning streak since 1996). Even with the higher close, the day's trading range was inside yesterday's trading range. Volume is super light, RSI's super high. Not exactly the blow off rally the bull market of 2013 deserves. Seems more like a crawl to the finish line from here.
S&P 500 (SPY) The 2007 high still in gear 157.52 with 155 now support. Subs: Pivots Positive in all but NASDAQ
Russell 2000 (IWM) Crossed 93.75, but this is exactly what I mean-it seemed so anticlimactic. Subs: Out of TWM and keeping fewer open positions even with these new highs
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 69.00 has to clear and 68.00 has to hold
ETFs: Subs: Long 3 ETFs-XLF IYT SMH which is exactly my plan in this bull run. These 3 areas are what have to sustain to keep the market firm.
GLD If the market is for real, this should go south. Looking at 153 to see if holds or fails
XLF (Financials) Second inside day for all you marathon buffs-but I still have my money on this finishing the race Subs: Using the 10 DMA now for our trailing stop in the swing based on a closing basis
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day
SMH (Semiconductors): It's all about 36.00-and she is such a tease! Subs: First attempt at last week's high did not encourage me to add. But, when it clears 35.80 with some enthusiasm, I will
XRT (Retail) New highs after great report
IYT (Transportation) Cleared 110.
IYR (Real Estate) Wrote yesterday: "Tested and held the fast moving average. Above today's high would be a good sign and below today's low more reasons for concern." Go figure, a doji day right in the middle.
USO (US Oil Fund) Failed again to close above the 200 DMA Subs: Good place to look for a short if cannot clear 33.37
OIH (Oil Services) Mainly I see a sloppy chart, now with an inside day Subs: We are back to watching the 80 monthly moving average
XLE (Energy) Has to clear the top in place form early February.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs: Bought above the pivots and got stopped out using a miniswing risk. But pivots positive so still watching
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Into resistance on my weekly chart and had an inside day
XHB (Homebuilders) Has to clear 30.00
EWI (MSCI Italy Cap Index) Subs: What I tweeted, "EWI you could dump or not-I have no attachment to that trade." However, Keith says it is still in play as long as it holds the 200 DMA.
Bye for Now!
