Open Trade Update
Trade: SMH 35.80 Long
New Stop: 35.29 Stop Order Market on Close (MOC)
First Target: 36.40 1/4 - 1/3 of position size profit then 37.50-37.80 another 1/4 off
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Open Trade Update
Trade: XLF 17.96 Long
New Stop: 18.07 New Stop Market on Close (MOC)
First Target: 18.75 (take off 1/3 or so) Note: Some of you might have taken some profit at 18.37 or 1.5 ATRs from our original entry.
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Analysis for Friday, 3/15/13
All over the news: Market closes just shy of the 2007 high. Is that the finish line? Since the market has literally traveled straight up to get there, be prepared for one of four possibilities. One: We get there; take it out, close below, correction time. Two: We get there and reverse immediately. Three: We get there; blow through and onto new highs. Four: We don't get there and this was it. Whatever happens, this has been so much fun! Thank you, the goddess of trading!
S&P 500 (SPY) The 2007 high still in gear 157.52. A clear indication of which of the four scenarios will play out is if it breaks Thursday's gap low of 156.42. Subs: Pivots Positive in all indices.
Russell 2000 (IWM) After closing Wednesday over 93.75, it was the small caps which flexed its muscles. Looking at this, scenario three seems likely. However, 93.75 remains pivotal
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 69.00 has to clear and 68.00 has to hold. Subs: Logic dictates that since this index did not move along with the others, should the market turn around, this would be the first place I would look to short or buy QID.
ETFs:
GLD After the gap up on the 12th, it filled the gap making 153 the make or break area. Subs: Will be watching for a short on an OR range failure under 153, a long over today's high. Also watch GDX.
XLF (Financials) Good volume on today's move higher. Which could mean a parabolic move is still in play, or it could be a blow-off scenario that is in the works. Subs: Using the 10 DMA now for our trailing stop in the swing based on a closing basis
IBB (Biotechnology) - As one of the surprising leaders in the last few weeks, I would keep a close eye on this for signs of a potential roll-over.
SMH (Semiconductors): It's all about 36.00-and she is such a tease, closing right there! Subs: Still want to add but, will most likely wait until next week.
XRT (Retail) - Continues to make new highs on consumer spending fever.
IYT (Transportation) After clearing 110, reached a profit target today at 112. Subs: Keeping a no loss stop on the balance.
IYR (Real Estate) Did what it had to do, and needs to continue to hold today's low.
USO (US Oil Fund)- Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation with an inside day. Subs: Provided today's low holds, would be looking for a long entry assuming it confirms the phase change.
OIH (Oil Services) After an inside day, today broke above a several week base. Subs: Pushing, once again, against the 80 monthly moving average.
XLE (Energy)- This did exactly what the retail sector did, got through 2013 highs and kept on going.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries)- 68.00 to hold as this continues its basing action.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration)- As one of my favorite sectors this year, now trading at the top of a trendline going back to 2008.
XHB (Homebuilders) Still has to clear 30.00
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subs: A correction to the 22.30 area would offer a low-risk buy against the 200 DMA.
EWI (MSCI Italy Cap Index) Subs: Gapped higher today and we are back looking at a close above 12.60 for a continuation move up.
Bye for Now!
