Open Trade Updates
Trade: CANCEL SPLK Long 38.86 buy stop with 39.00 limit
Instrument Name: Splunk Incorporated
Position:
Stop:
Target:
Trade Description: Cancel the buy order until we see how the market reacts to this selloff. Also, prefer to wait for Monday for new signals.
*************************************************************
Existing Position: XLF 17.96 Long
New Stop: Can use a no loss stop to avoid a loss at 17.96 or lower is to 17.84 under the March 5th low.
First Target: 18.75 (take off 1/3 or so)
*************************************************************
Market Analysis for 3/22/2013
Island top in S&P 500, which I have been writing about since last Friday, got some legs today. Once the SPY gapped lower this morning, especially after the Venus Fly Trap warning, the writing was on the wall. Now, although the bull phase remains intact, the potential test of the underlying 50 daily moving average seems likely. NASDAQ is much closer to the 50 DMA which also makes sense given the lackluster performance it has had since the year began. The small caps (Russell 2000), which have led the rally up, continue to have the best chance to show the way-either failing at the 93.00 level or returning above today's high and bringing confidence back to the buyers. Cash is the best place to be for the active investor right now.
S&P 500 (SPY) Subs: Best indicator is whether or not the return to the channel breakout from March 5th holds up-there is a gap low there as well at 153.64. Long SDS ½ position since got ½ ATR
Dow (DIA) Has room to the March 5th low 141.69. That was the low on the gap up day that resumed the rally until last Friday. Good area to watch now
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 67.50 (the 50 DMA) is key to hold and 69.00 the area to break above
ETFs:
GLD Rallying on fear in the marketplace. Could see the 50 DMA overhead as resistance and if this begins to sell off, would take that as a positive for the overall market.
XLF (Financials) 17.87 is the March 5th low to watch for
IBB (Biotechnology) Brick wall high in place, but would not count this out as best chance for a comeback if market stabilizes
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed warning phase with some support at 34.50 Subs: Took the small loss and now will be real patient for jumping back in
XRT (Retail) Like biotech, the best one to watch for a long if things stabilize, or if can hold around the 69.00 level
IYT (Transportation) A move down to 107 would be very tempting to buy. Aside for now
IYR (Real Estate) Best performer today. Hammer candle so one to watch tomorrow for either a move back up or failure to the 50 DMA from here
USO (US Oil Fund) Chaotic chart
OIH (Oil Services) Had a shot but now looking heavier
XLE (Energy) Another sloppy chart here
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Back to unconfirmed warning phase. Subs: Aside here now as well
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Correction time since it never cleared the channel on the weekly chart although watch for support around 60.00
XHB (Homebuilders) Brick wall possible after looking so promising
UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.64 key.
Bye for Now!
